Will the grand ball of the oil king continue?

28 February 20213 years ago babelfish

The post by Gianni Bessi, regional councilor of Emilia-Romagna and author in 2020 of “House of zar. Geopolitics and energy in the time of Putin, Erdogan and Trump "(goware editions)

Under the heading of daily crude oils, Brent and Paniere Opec confirm a barrel between 63 and 65 dollars. Since November with the House of Tsar network we have been debating and closely monitoring the constant rise in the price. At the meeting of the timely and classic December table of Opec plus, the newfound peace between Tsar Putin and the crown prince of the Saudi KingdomMohammed bin Salam served to calm much speculation.

Many analysts suggest that the price of oil would be affected by the progress of vaccinations. It is obvious that if in the anglosphere of Boris Johnson and Joe Biden (who, let's face it, the acceleration of vaccination is in line with the Trump administration) the current fast pace is maintained, as a conjunction the price of the King should continue to rise. . Furthermore, Joe Biden on the one hand is officially part of the Paris agreements, on the other hand he has sent the new secretary of energy to the Senate to argue that shale oil and shale gas, together with the carbon capture and utilization of CO2, are priorities of the new administration. All to reassure both the Texan cowboys and the Wall Street wolves exposed for billions on the traditional resources sector.

In the meantime, today it is certainly true that the prices of derivatives are rising: we realize it when we stop at the petrol pump.

Some say that world demand will return to its pre-pandemic level, ie around 100 million and more tons. However, a question that is and will be different depending on the geographical area: China, which still seems to be the only major nation to have at least sterilized the pandemic if not eradicated, will increase demand compared to 2019. economic recovery but also of the role that the Oil King maintains in the Asian system. And our old Europe? If the reasoning of the conjunction between vaccination, demand growth and economic growth is valid, then today the vaccination element is certainly missing … but if the trend in the world price of King oil starts as we hope it will be even more influenced.

It remains even more relevant in this contemporaneity where the green has become trendy and we really like it, and where no one like the King has had such a bad reputation, with accusations of being responsible for almost all the evils of humanity, from the Punic wars to then, to quote Giulio Andreotti's famous joke.

Many have tried to predict its end with refined calculations on stocks, on the peaks of symmetrical bell curves and hypothetical temporary dead lines. Everyone clashed over the scarcity of data, the unpredictability of demand and the evolution of derived goods. But above all on the unused capacity, a fascinating subject, on the progress of technologies and on the oddities of the oil cycle. Not to mention its price. Then there are countless those who have prophesied its replacement tout court with other sources passed off as miraculous.

On the other hand, very few have sided with him: one of these is for example Alex Epstein who wrote his praise in the book 'In defense of fossil fuels'.

But no one can deny that the elderly and besieged King has produced so much revolution and wealth that it deserves the nickname of 'black gold'.

Despite public opinion is now biased towards everything that is green, even for this beginning of the century, and I personally believe for a long time, we will have to continue to listen to what the knights who sit at the round table of the Oil King say and face the truths inconvenient that Leonardo Maugeri summed up well: the first is that oil, coal and gas will dominate the energy scene for a long time to come. The second, more than a truth could be defined as a law, that is, that low cost energy and environmental and climate protection are incompatible. In conclusion, as Maugeri wrote, "only an effort of research, technological development and energy efficiency can allow us to get out of these truths that constitute our energy trap".

If there is a way to escape this trap and overcome the dependence on hydrocarbons, it must be sought in an overall effort, that is, an alliance and a commitment of resources, minds, political strength of Europe and the United States together to realize what would be a real and own energy revolution.

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/continuera-il-gran-ballo-del-re-petrolio/ on Sun, 28 Feb 2021 06:37:34 +0000.