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Why the US and NATO do not intervene in Ukraine. Fabbri’s analysis (Scenarios)

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Why the US and NATO do not intervene in Ukraine. Fabbri's analysis (Scenarios)

All the consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and what the US and the EU have decided. The analysis by Dario Fabbri, editor of the monthly Scenari attached to the newspaper Domani directed by Stefano Feltri

Why did Russia invade Ukraine? And how do the US, the EU and NATO react?

“The United States shows itself introverted, distracted by the internal clash between the citizens of the interior, exhausted by the imperial effort, and those on the coast, now unaware that they are living in a superpower. Strategically focused on the Indo-Pacific, prone to resolving the quarrels existing elsewhere with careful calmness ".

This is what Dario Fabbri writes in the first issue of the monthly Scenari on newsstands on February 25, the analysis of geopolitics formerly in Limes magazine and now editor of the monthly attached to the newspaper Domani directed by Stefano Feltri.

Zelensky's requests

Ukrainian President Zelensky has made some requests to the West, the most important of which are the disconnection of Russia from the SWIFT system (the crucial system for the exchange of financial transactions worldwide ) and the introduction of a no fly zone on the Ukraine . "A no fly zone over Ukraine would mean open war on Russia, we would throw ourselves into a nuclear war because the Russians use nuclear weapons in a tactical way", said Fabbri.

The blitzkrieg

What Putin would have in mind would be a "blitzkrieg". A proposal that in the past was unsuccessful. “Russia does not have the necessary number of men to keep the country indefinitely – explains Fabbri during the 'Mentana marathon' on La7 -. Putin knows that occupying such a country for a long time can become a boomerang . One thing is the lightning action of an army superior to the challenger, another thing is to strategically win the war on the territory. The real game is played there, Putin hopes to finish soon and get what he wants immediately ”.

Why is Putin going this far?

Russia waited at least three months before moving on to an armed attack. “Military plans have been developed over the years on multiple scenarios – added Fabbri -. They don't expect nearly three months , as Russia did, amassing troops on the Ukrainian border since December and then entering now, playing the surprise effect ”. Putin waited for the Olympics to end, as he promised Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The failure of the deal

The negotiations between Moscow and Washington went on for at least three months and ran aground on Putin's impossible demands. " Russia has concretely negotiated with the Americans pursuing maximalist objectives: sine die neutrality of Ukraine, total revision of the security system in Central Eastern Europe, that is, NATO must stop with the open door policy, via the missile batteries from Romania and those under construction in Poland , agree on every military operation, revision of ballistic treaties – underlined Fabbri -. Between the end of January and mid-February, the Americans dealt seriously with the Russians, they even made promises that, however, Putin demanded in black and white. Impossible for the US. At this point Putin's calculation changes, the turning point is the recognition of the self-styled republics of Donbass . This is not enough. Putin is not enough to remotely control Ukraine by preventing it from joining NATO, he wants more, he wants to impose regime change in Kiev ”.

Russia acts out of fear

Ukraine has a strategic position, so much so that its very name means "border land". "Russia has a very insecure perception of itself because in addition to having an extremely vast territory, the largest on the planet , it lives on a very long plain, the Sarmatic plain where Ukraine is also located, which makes Russia indefensible like all countries huge that mountains do not have – said the editor of the monthly Scenari -. This is not a detail because it forms the psychology of the Russians who need to subdue neighboring countries to prevent an attack from reaching their home. So they act out of deep fear ”.

The US does not intervene in defense of Ukraine

Economic sanctions against Russia will not go alongside military support for Ukraine. " The US does not intervene in Ukraine because it does not consider Ukraine so strategic – adds the geopolitics expert -. They are no longer even convinced that the containment of Russia up to these latitudes is functional to their cause. In other words, the idea of ​​expanding NATO and leading it to reach the borders of Russia is no longer considered functional in many of the American apparatuses, perhaps it is more a risk than an advantage ".

The West and NATO do not want war

NATO and the whole West will not rush to help Ukraine crossed by the Russian army. “The position of NATO and the West is not that of war. Waging war on Russia means entering a war with nuclear potential . It is clear, however, that what is happening will have a strategic reverberation on NATO – underlines Dario Fabbri -. NATO does not come out very well because, let's not hide it, NATO has flirted with Ukraine for a long time, it is not a country that is foreign to it. Already from the Bucharest summit when Ukraine was included, together with Georgia, in the list of countries that should have joined NATO. Today it is impossible to ignore all this , it remains an absolute impotence on the military level that, after all, had already been demonstrated in Georgia in 2008. Here the dimensions are larger, and Putin knew it well and for this reason he acted in this way ".

The economic and financial repercussions on Moscow

War means uncertainty and the markets don't like uncertainty at all . In the aftermath of the war , the Moscow stock exchange lost a third of its total capitalization . The fraying of the economic interests of oligarchs and businessmen may be the pawn capable of making Putin's operation creak. “There were also different opinions in Putin's entourage – remarked Fabbri -. In a video of the Russian national council, Putin humiliates the intelligence chief because he simply did not agree with him in moving to military action, testifying to the fact that there was a Putinian front that does not agree with the military option. ".

The unknowns for Putin in Ukraine

"The ongoing military test could prove sterile in the medium to long term, since what has been achieved will inevitably intensify Ukrainian nationalistic sentiment in an anti-Russian function, a trend that in the future should distance Kiev itself from Moscow – wrote Fabbri in the first issue of Scenari – Process similar to the events of Georgia, a country that 14 years after the invasion remains far from NATO and the West but still animated by the desire to rethink its strategic posture, never fixed on that of the Kremlin. The cultural and ethnic vibrations in Ukraine, which have been going on for many years, may have found a reason to resist, to crystallize. Of course, Putin could rewrite national historiography by placing himself as the hero who recovered the place where Prince Vladimir prescribed baptism to his subjects. Evidently enough to end one's career satisfactorily. But in some time Russia risks facing the same problems in the presence of neighbors and enemies now far from its claims, grappling with a foreign neighbor temporarily sedated while the fire of revenge smolders ".

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START MAGAZINE ANALYSIS AND INSIGHTS ON RUSSIA, UKRAINE AND WAR:

Because Russia attacked Ukraine. Giulio Sapelli speaks

All Italy's business at risk in Ukraine

Who hits against Italian interests in Russia. Here are companies and banks in the sights

All Putin's goals in Russia (not just the Donbass)

Ukraine: what Putin really wants. Fabbri's analysis

Who will cry more in Italy for the sanctions against Russia

Ukraine, this is what Turkey and Qatar do against Russia

Because Putin's tear in the Donbass is a challenge to the USA, France and Germany

All the mistakes of the USA and Germany on Ukraine and Russia

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-usa-e-nato-non-intervengono-in-ucraina-lanalisi-di-fabbri-scenari/ on Fri, 25 Feb 2022 08:21:23 +0000.