Why China will eat Russia (Putin is wrong)
At the moment, Xi Jinping is forced to put a good face on the bad game. But then the time of reckoning will come. And then it will be hard times for the Siberian bear and Putin's excesses . Gianfranco Polillo's analysis
There are already those who have launched themselves without any contempt for ridicule. For Claudio Risé, from the pages of La Verità , the West is the past; the future is only in the East under the banner of that multilateralism so dear to Vladimir Putin. Which aims to replace Euro-Atlantic hegemony with Eastern despotism. And so, by a strange coincidence in time, while in Brussels it was decided on the candidacies of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldavia, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) held their own meeting, albeit not in presence. but with the participation of the maximo leader of each country, due to the new wave of pandemic from Covid, which developed in Shanghai. And the parallelism was immediate.
The new catwalk offered to Vladimir Putin has helped to reassure his home front. Gas and oil exports ensured, especially to China and India. If, however, you pay a little attention to reality, it is easy to see how much more complex the situation is. Let's start with the anger of the new Tsar. Fully justified. Among the BRICS, Russia is the one with the worst performance. In 1983, the first year of IMF data, Russia's weight on the world economy was 4.3 per cent. In 2023 it will be only 2.6, with a deadweight loss of 40 percent. Brazil and South Africa are not doing well either, but their losses are much smaller. It should only be added that the Russians, in managing their decline, have done everything by themselves: unable, as they have proved, to rationally use the immense resources of their subsoil.
The BRICS have above all statistical significance: the countries with the highest rate of development among the emerging ones. Given, as we will see, to be explored. China is absolutely dominant. A profound difference with the western bloc, which is, however, more balanced. In 1983, the weight of the former Celestial Empire was 29.4 percent. Forty years later that percentage had risen to 59.6 percent. On the Western front, however, the numbers contribute to contesting Putin's rhetoric. In the same range, the weight of the US rose from 32.1 to 36.7 per cent.
Chinese supremacy over the other members of the group is not only absolute, but characterized by an extraordinary intrinsic strength. In 1983, just to give some data, the relationship with Russia was almost equal, in 2023 it will be 7.4 times as much. India is the only country that manages to stay behind the queue. Yet, in the period considered, the distances almost doubled, going from a ratio of 1.5 to 2.5. Under the given conditions, it is difficult for other countries to be willing to transform this constraint of an economic-financial nature, but above all a mercantile one, into one of a political nature. Paradoxically, Putin himself, if he were not blinded by his hatred of the United States and NATO, should be the first to show caution. The geographical proximity to the Chinese giant, with its 4,500 kilometers of border, exposes it enormously. Taking into account, among other things, the demographic factor. China with its huge population, Asian Russia almost uninhabited.
It must also be added that the future is in Jupiter's womb. The phenomenon of the maximum expansion of the BRICS occurred during the decade from 2003 to 2013. This period also coincided with the strongest retreat in the West. In those ten years the growth of the former had been equal to 8.8 points. The fall of the seconds to 10.4. Undoubtedly exceptional period compared to both 1993/2003 and 2013/2023, in which the change was much less traumatic. No surprise, however. The nefarious invasion of Iraq occurred in 2003; the war against Al-Qaida of those years; Gaddafi's invasion of Libya in 2011. Just to name the most relevant episodes.
It must also be said that those great changes, in the balance of power between the different areas of the globe, were above all the children of the merchant greed of the West. That globalization, dominated above all by large financial capital, destined to act as a driving force for the most willing countries. In other words, they are able to develop by selling their products – most of the time foreign capital and local labor – on the great markets of Atlantic and European opulence. Process favored by the great wellness metropolises. That low-priced production made it possible, in fact, to reduce the cost of reproducing the labor force, keeping the relative wages low. Ricardian effect. While the industries, which still remained on national soil, could use the advantage deriving from the improvement of the terms of trade as they pleased.
To understand better, just look at the data provided by Unem, born on the remains of the old oil union. The price of super gasoline, in 2021, updated to take account of the inflationary process, was not so far from that of 1960: 1.631 euros per liter (annual average) against 1.662. The trend in the price of diesel fuel is slightly different: in 2021, equal to 1.489, compared to 1.099 in 1960. This is due to the growing disaffection from the tax authorities towards a product generally considered more polluting. But the similarities remain striking.
Putin's madness has definitely put this world in crisis. By showing everyone that commercialism is good and right as long as you are dealing with gentlemen. With people, that is, who respect the agreements. Who do not take advantage of their own oligopolistic advantage to threaten their customers. In short, they know and want to distinguish between the world of business and that of arms. Once respect for these principles has failed, the West can only act accordingly. After all, the United States themselves, with Donald Trump and his theses on "America first", before the ruinous initiative against Capitol Hill, had understood that something was boiling in the pot.
What can be understood from now on in the immediate future is a different segmentation of the international market. No longer that great arena in which everyone could behave to the best of their abilities to win the competition of others. But the definition of reserved areas, to which not everyone will be admitted. Areas in which political control, especially for some strategic productions, will be greater and where the mercantile logic of the best price will have to yield in the face of other needs. Such as the security of supplies, the reliability of the partner, the logic of alliances for a more general guarantee.
That old, almost frontier world of limitless globalization, in other words, fell together with the bombs on Mariupol. Blame for that anger, on the part of Putin, which was said at the beginning. Anger of a loser, forced to live in a world where his country, year after year, receded. Bringing out the increasingly stark contrast between economic and financial weakness and the strength that stemmed from the Soviet legacy of nuclear weapons. You can also understand his desire to give a push to impose a change, in the hope of being able to reverse the course of history. But China? How will China, which has been the main beneficiary of the globalization process, react? At the moment, Xi Jinping is forced to put a good face on the bad game. But then the time of reckoning will come. And then will be hard times for the Siberian bear and the excesses of its leader.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-la-cina-si-pappera-la-russia-putin-sta-sbagliando-i-conti/ on Sat, 25 Jun 2022 07:00:34 +0000.