Center-right healthy in the polls, but a part of the electorate is not represented
The League has promised too much and has achieved little on reopening to date. In the event that the current restrictions are extended until April 30, or even beyond, the risk is that an important audience of discontented Northern League voters will begin to look with interest at Fratelli d'Italia, the only party left in the opposition in Parliament. .
Many Northern League voters have not yet digested the active participation in the Draghi government and, despite some cautious opening positions of the League, the executive continues on the same path previously traced by Conte 2: senseless closures and insufficient economic support.
According to a Winpoll poll for Il Sole 24 Ore a few days ago, the united center-right would collect more than the absolute majority of the country, against about 36 percent of the center-left alliance. Giorgia Meloni's party alone had 19.2 percent of the vote, while Matteo Salvini's League would stop at 22.2 percent, just three percentage points ahead of the Brothers of Italy.
There is another positive figure for those who, like myself, look with sympathy at the right wing of the coalition: Meloni has greater electoral success in the South (24.2 per cent), where he takes advantage of the grillino collapse, while the League maintains its indisputable strength among the productive classes of the North (28.8 per cent).
In short, the united center-right presents itself as a structured and complete coalition also electorally, filling each other up in the various parts of the territory, also thanks to the support, albeit small, that Forza Italia can offer.
Although the coalition is booming in the polls, there is a clear difficulty in the League in terms of consensus. A piece of advice (humble and unsolicited) could be to speak to a section of center-right voters who, at present, are not yet fully represented. Liberal, libertarian, Eurosceptic voters but always in the name of the free market. In short, to put it in a nutshell, to offer the Thatcherian component that for obvious reasons Forza Italia is absolutely unable to represent.
Salvini will have to work intelligently to maintain consensus at the current level, keeping together the "hard core" of the party with that large slice of popular electorate acquired in recent years, which at this stage may be more inclined to migrate to the Brothers of Italy. And who knows … with a closer look at liberal and liberal principles, he will be able to keep his leadership steady.
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This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/centrodestra-in-salute-nei-sondaggi-ma-una-parte-di-elettorato-non-e-rappresentata/ on Mon, 29 Mar 2021 04:50:00 +0000.