Renzi aims at the same majority, new government, but without Conte. He knows early voting is minimal risk and has nothing to lose. There are two possible outcomes: the Democratic Party gives up and, in order to save the legislature, sacrifices Conte, who represents the synthesis and the frontman of the increasingly organic alliance with the 5 Star Movement, and then we will have the same majority but with another premier; they find the "responsible" in the Senate, or Renzi gives up, and we will also keep Conte. However, the country will lose
We cannot think of collecting the pieces of this legislature and making them the iron vase that Italy would need in order not to sink into the abyss of misery, to get out of the logic and the emergency mentality to which we risk getting used, to leave behind the massacre of lives, but also of law and democracy in recent months. Whoever is to blame for having given birth to this government, today wants to take credit – because it is certainly a credit – for its fall, just to remind everyone that it is still capable, if only for anything else, of ruining the holidays: I made to be born, I make it finish. Yes, there is also some vanity in Matteo Renzi's gesture.
Renzi's majorettes explained to us a year and a half ago that the birth of this government had been a great genius; now they will explain to us, the same ones, that it is a great genius to put an end to it. And in between? Is the desperate flickers of a beached fish the height of political acumen that our disinterested pundits know how to recognize? But what a genius! It didn't bring anything to Renzi, nailed to his 2-3 percent, but it took away a lot, too much, from millions of Italians.
But why open the crisis right now? Timing in politics can also tell a lot about motivations. We must certainly not believe that Renzi was deluding himself, a year and a half ago, when he claimed to have given birth to him, on the nature of Conte or of the 5 Stars. Although the reasons of merit he cited are all well founded, the former premier has come out of time to make himself credible: Italy is – not from today – a negative model in the response to the virus, record of victims, closures, restrictions on fundamental freedoms and economic damage; the additional debt money granted by Parliament (over 100 billion) the government has mostly squandered or unspent; the "full powers" Conte took them last February (we at Atlantico have been denouncing this since March) and the serious constitutional violations continued in the silence of all at least until late autumn. After how many Dpcm Renzi noticed it? How many budget variances did Italia Viva vote before realizing that the money was being misused? No, Renzi cannot cling to the alibi – which Salvini can instead appeal to – that he did not know his gambling companions. Not companions in adventure, because it was not an adventure, but a gamble on the skin of the Italians.
But the Count-bis served to prevent the return to the polls, and the almost certain victory of the League and the center-right, as well as the cancellation of its nascent bush. Salvini or whoever for him would have had the legitimate "full powers", those provided for by our Constitution, leading a composite coalition, anything but monolithic, but at least not an ircocervo like the one with the 5 Stars, while at Conte Italia Viva has granted illegitimate "full powers" for almost a year.
Why now, then? Because today that danger, in his eyes, and unfortunately also in ours, is almost completely averted. We are still in emergency and a few months after the white semester. The 5 Stars would make false cards, would vote anyone and anything, in order not to return to the vote early (see the desperate "all in" by Grillo). But above all because the Democratic Party has a single goal in mind from the beginning: to secure the highest office with the minimum of votes – the presidency of the Republic – even for the seven years from 2022 onwards. Naturally assisted in this by President Mattarella.
Other than the pandemic, these are the only reasons why "you can't" vote. Total bluff were the Quirinale's showcases on the risk of early elections in the event of a crisis. But bluffs are also the showgirls who warn that the president would not be willing to baptize a gathering majority. Anything, just to avoid early elections. Any, at any cost. As always, there will be a gathering majority, then with the help of the supporting media, and "my lady, there is an emergency!" , we will think about how to present it to the country.
Renzi, who has nothing to lose, knows these things, so he opened the games. And be careful, because in yesterday's press conference, closing to all alternatives (no ruling on Conte, no "turnaround" with the center-right ", no to the vote), the former prime minister actually opened to a Conte-ter. It is, therefore.
But we believe that the first of his three no (no ruling on Conte) is not sincere. This time he can't bluff, he can't bring everything back for a reshuffle or a few billion moved here or there. The big target is Conte's head: either he or Conte. If it fails, Italia Viva takes a seat in the opposition.
Renzi has his reasons, because Conte is the link that makes the Pd-5 Star alliance possible, now just a few steps away from becoming organic. Without Conte, Pd and 5 Stelle are naked. What would be the synthesis personality between the two forces? It would take time to find another one. And who would their frontmen be , when sooner or later it will return to the vote? Zingaretti and Crimi? Killing Conte, therefore, to undermine the Pd-5 Star agreement, undermine the Zingaretti secretariat and get back into the game.
Enlivened by the entry of his friend Biden into the White House, thinking he had his shoulders sufficiently covered, Renzi took courage and finally passed from words, threats, penultimatums , to deeds. But he overestimated the support (and patience) of Democratic Washington. It needs to show that it still matters, that it is still decisive, it cannot be satisfied with a reshuffle.
But will they let him? Bettini and Letta (Gianni) weave, weave, weave. The first made it known that Conte would have the numbers to move forward anyway ("they will arrive in due time"), but it could be a bluff to make Renzi surrender when his going to the opposition threatened to really cause the accident that would lead to vote.
The question for the next few hours, however, is: can Mattarella allow Conte to go and scrape together some stragglers in Parliament, without a formal passage to the Quirinale, thus selling off functions that do not belong to him but to the office he holds? And, if so, will he be able to afford a re-assignment to Conte, running the risk that the "responsible" do not reveal themselves, that they were the birth of the will of Bettini's optimism and someone's sòla? "Responsible" are always found, except when it turns out that each thought that the others would have sacrificed themselves for the noble cause of supporting an unpresentable government in order to remain clinging to the chair …
But Mattarella, founding father of this red-yellow coalition, will want to do everything to save his creature, especially if he is cherishing the idea of his re-election to the Quirinale. And it may have no alternative to the gamble of a Conte-ter collector.
At this point, we do not feel like excluding a thrilling scenario that we hope not to have to witness: it would be really too much, if after a first forcing, the Count-bis, President Mattarella made a second one, also baptizing a Count-ter , even more recollected, to keep the Pd-5 Star alliance alive, and if this same alliance saved by him would re-elect him for a second seven years. A Parliament, let us not forget, no longer in line with the constitutional dictates – after the reform, confirmed by referendum, which reduced the number of parliamentarians by more than a third – which instead of being dissolved to adapt to the wishes of the Italians, even decides who should be the tenant of the Colle for a further seven years, until 2029.
It would be a nefarious and unprecedented conduct, that of a president who would run a clearly exhausted legislature, for the sole purpose of preserving a political coalition he had baptized, which in a few months would ensure his re-election to the Quirinale. Also in the light of a presidency already tainted by the silences on the abuse of the Dpcm and by the signing of the decree laws of "full powers" to the head of the Government (decrees no. 6 of 23 February 2020 and no. 172 of 18 December 2020).
On the other hand, the understandable temptation is to get back into the game. Forza Italia could lend some of its "numbers" to keep Conte going, while remaining formally in the opposition. Understandable temptation, but no, no, no. It would be too generous to offer to put one's face on such a disaster, just two years after the end of the term. The illusion of being able to play a few cards in the election of the next tenant of the Colle is not worth the risk.
We are under no illusions about the – practically nil – possibilities of early elections this spring, in May. With the vaccination campaign well underway, the less aggressive virus (like last year at that time), the distancing measures and the protective devices we already adopt, we could vote in complete safety, as many other countries have done in the past months and will over the next. If we queue to enter a store or supermarket, we can also queue to vote. Democracy is no less important than shopping .
It would therefore be wrong to renounce a priori to ask them, in a loud voice, so that those who deny them put it in front of us, at least have the burden of revealing their hypocrisy by explaining to the country why not.
The post Elections, immediately. We can, we must: irresponsible are those who are preparing further forcing appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/elezioni-subito-si-puo-si-deve-irresponsabili-sono-coloro-che-preparano-ulteriori-forzature/ on Thu, 14 Jan 2021 05:04:11 +0000.