Here are the moves of Draghi and Pd to avoid being checked in the match for the Quirinale

W e have imagined what the Democratic Party could do in two months that separate us from the meeting of electors, conceivably set for January 18. Today we would like to imagine what could happen as that date approaches, if the two parties are both still undominated.

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1. Draghi wants to stay at Palazzo Chigi? – On 7 October on Atlantico we talked about how the Democratic Party does not want Draghi at the Quirinale and suggested the latter's possible reaction: " not to be available for a re-appointment after the resignation due to a new President of the Republic who is not himself" . On 11 and 12 November, we were happy to read the same hypothesis in il Fatto and La Stampa , albeit expressed in slightly improper terms; then even in an article by Bruno Vespa .

On the other hand, clues accumulated about Draghi's temporal expectations at the time of the formation of the government. Giavazzi's words last May. Certain confidences of Minister Franco about the commitment offered by Draghi "which, on paper, should have had a horizon of one year". The denial dinner with Mattarella on 23 September, at the Quirinale, in which Draghi would have said to Mattarella " if you stay, I'll stay too ", a statement that seems to have answered a question " if I stay, what are you doing?" ; question that Mattarella would not have needed to ask, if there were not different expectations . The words of Giorgetti and Brunetta of the following days. Everything suggests that, in January, Draghi placed a limit on his availability and Mattarella took note of it.

Add the most recent “Draghi's irritation ”, first of all towards the Democratic Party, objectively the greatest obstacle to one's elevation to the Colle; discontent , for Cappellini in La Repubblica ; concern for Monica Guerzoni on Corriere .

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2. Does the Democratic Party intend to sell? – The novelty is that, even in the face of this dry alternative, the Democratic Party seems determined to do without Draghi. His editorialists know very well that "Draghi far from the Quirinale opens the chapter of the political estate of his government ", since "his failure to land on the Hill would still be read as a defeat of the premier ". But they write it with implicit satisfaction.

The candidate of the Democratic Party is always Mattarella. Who, yes, made a short joke , dressed by others as renouncing re-election, followed by a second even more vague one. But the friendly newspapers continually insist that he could reconsider, ex-multis : Tommaso Ciriaco pushes himself to overturn reality and writes that Draghi would resign ”, if Mattarella were not reconfirmed… the comedians; out of fiction, Matteo Orfini proposes to the Democratic Party to vote for him fixed from the first ballot.

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3. Does Draghi have to indicate the name of his replacement to win? – Enrico Letta said: “I will not say anything about the Quirinale until January”. A way to force Draghi to expose himself. As the deputy Ceccanti explains, if he were Draghi "a new prime minister would have to be chosen, on whose name there can be equal approval", obviously. But – continues Ceccanti – the name should be spent immediately , otherwise, "the parliamentarians would not vote in the dark for Draghi if it were not clear what happens to the government afterwards" and "would rush into an institutional crisis", that is, in an infinite series of votes . From which one would come out only with an appeal to Mattarella: “there are no alternatives to the Mattarella bis”. Ceccanti seems to be increasing: " if conditions do not change , Draghi is the weakest candidate to date". This is the fable, repeated everywhere, of the peons : mass of parliamentarians terrified and unreasonable to the point of not knowing how to evaluate the safest ways to keep jobs and contributions (not the annuity, that is insured ) until the last possible day. Now a literary genre, but of fantasy: indeed, in the secret ballot, Draghi will miss the votes of the Democratic Party, not those of the peons .

The reality is that Draghi cannot spend a name before being elected: he would be immediately accused of merchandise, extortion or who knows what else. Therefore – assures Vespa – “it does not move”. So let your bartender talk. Therefore the Democratic Party tries to flush him out. Mattarella began with his own short lines, which had the effect of focusing everyone's attention on the competitor. Continued Uil Bombers . Di Maio provokes him (Draghi “must give a perspective to Parliament, of survival”) and, with him, Giannini , Ugo Magri , De Angelis , Cappellini , Claudio Martelli . A trap, obviously.

In short, when he moves by offering himself for the Quirinale, we imagine Draghi will not name names for Chigi.

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4. Will Draghi nominate himself? – For the Democratic Party, Senator Zanda predicts he will do it and warns: the self-nomination "is ungrammatical, because none of the twelve presidents we have had has ever been self-nominated". Draghi could respond to the Democratic Party with the semi-presidential argument that Pasquino anticipated: "public opinion would begin to know more about what it is legitimate to desire and expect from those who are willing to be elected". Paolo Mieli goes so far as to advocate the "involvement of the electorate in the choice of the positions of the Republic", immediately chastised by Pasquino himself, who likes Italian democracy as it is and would only like it a little more confrontational. Both, however, appear to be preparing their weapons for the day that self-candidacy will come.

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5. If he runs, will Draghi win? – For Draghi, Brunetta and Giorgetti talked about de facto semipresidentialism , a foolish way that opened a way to the rude constitutionalists of the Democratic Party that we have seen . But the fact remains that it is just a silly way to say a simple thing: Draghi would find his own gallop for Palazzo Chigi and protect him as Mattarella protected him… using presidential derailments . Not surprisingly, those who deny it also deny the existence of these same derailments , but it is out of reality. Among other Casini, but only because he is looking for a role that Draghi's candidacy would deny him. On the other hand, Meloni takes "for granted that another government will be attempted with Draghi al Colle", to add that such a government "would be unworthy and in difficulty", not that it would not be born; and then implicitly even suggests its program, when it insists on a new electoral law.

All this comforts the peons who, in fact, as President of the Republic Dragons would not have to fear. All peons : even those of the Democratic Party. Many of whom, consequently, would vote for Draghi by secret ballot, even if Letta had secretly asked them to do the opposite. When Draghi repeats the formula "Parliament will decide", when "at Palazzo Chigi everyone remembers the very different scenario in which Carlo Azeglio Ciampi was elected at the first shot, when the leaders firmly governed their parliamentary groups", well we intend to point out to Having read this weakness of yours.

In short, if Draghi ran without naming his successor, he would have a good chance of winning.

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6. Can the Democratic Party prevent him from running? – Yes, with an agreement between the parties for an alternative candidate. This is the proposal of the aforementioned Senator Zanda , who invites them not to "wait for Draghi to self-apply to the Quirinale" but, rather, to " agree in due time for a new president" other than him. In fact, Letta proposed "a pact between the parties, in support of Draghi " … Prime Minister . However, to keep Parliament united, Letta would have to propose a right-wing candidate, perhaps Berlusconi himself; but the Democratic Party really wants to have the Colle for itself and this first case cannot be, in fact it offers a shortlist of candidates, perhaps even welcome to the right , but all comrades, with or without a PD card: a Gentiloni , let's say.

It does not seem that the right is willing to vote for a Gentiloni , and certain votes against the government in Parliament seem to have been thought of as a signal for Letta.

Nonetheless, in the unfortunate case that the right agreed to vote for a Gentiloni , our hypothesis would intervene here and Draghi would let it be known that "he would not be available for a re-appointment after the resignation due to a new President of the Republic other than himself". We already know that, even in the face of this dry alternative, the Democratic Party seems determined to do without Draghi and Zanda confirms it ("he must do what he is doing, the premier and he must accept the decisions of Parliament. If he decides to elect him well , if not, he must take note … I absolutely do not want to enter into the merits, I consider it wrong to talk about it "). Sadly ,… some of the other parties might see it differently. In short, no, the Democratic Party cannot prevent Draghi from running as a candidate.

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7. And what does the 5-star want? – The position of the Democratic Party is weakened by the deep fracture within the 5 Stars. We know that Conte has hindered Letta 's majority agreement , we know that on the Quirinale he shares Giavazzi's analysis and we know that, beaten in the last round of Rai appointments, he reacted against the Democratic Party . Almost the opposite of Di Maio, which those appointments would have tacitly endorsed and who, on the Quirinale, slavishly follows Letta's position. The evident contradiction suggests to some to insist and so does Ignazi . But let's imagine his attempt will go the same way as the previous one. In short, it is not surprising that the big 5-star voters have very confused ideas.

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8. Is it better for Draghi not to run? – Let's assume that Draghi does not apply. Procedure: (1) Letta only proposes companions, with or without a Pd card. (2) By an inevitable logical consequence, Parliament is divided : for and against someone's candidacy, perhaps Berlusconi. In the words of Vincenzo Visco : “it would be chaos ”. Draghi would take note and confirm his unwillingness to re-commission . If this someone were elected , it would be by "a majority other than the current one" (not necessarily including the Democratic Party), which would feel the irresistible temptation to capitalize on the victory with a quick general election campaign. This would not benefit the peons at all and we're sure they figure it out for themselves. (3) If this someone were not elected, the irremediably divided Parliament would invoke Mattarella, who would ask in exchange for a new electoral law and / or a small constitutional reform (" no to re-eligibility, via the blank semester "): enough to keep busy the Parliament until the natural end of the legislature. He would appoint a new Prime Minister, accepted by all the parties that supported him and the peons would have what they want.

In short, if Draghi did not run, he would lose Chigi and the Quirinale. So, let's imagine he will stand up and try his luck.

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9. Is it convenient for Draghi to run as a candidate at the beginning? – Even if Draghi is a candidate and fails, the same will divide his majority, the same he would take note of the distrust of Parliament in his person and would confirm his unwillingness to a re-appointment, the same would come to Mattarella. In short, if Draghi waited to apply, he would get the same result as not applying: losing Chigi and the Quirinale. So let's imagine he will run from the start.

This would mean wiping out Berlusconi's candidacy. In fact Meloni, not only stops the majority agreement proposed by Letta, but also sends an arrow to the Curare to Berlusconi, guilty of having accepted him: "therefore, since the Democratic Party will never vote for it, I believe that Berlusconi has taken a step back" … That is, it makes Draghi take a step forward.

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The reader will have the goodness to grant us that a lot of water still has to pass under the bridge and many things could still change. Only if ahead of this step, Draghi and the Democratic Party would really end up meeting in single combat. Maybe not in the meeting of the electors, maybe a few days before. If this turns out to be the case, only one will survive: either Draghi al Colle, or Mattarella but without Draghi in Chigi.

In other times, the two sides would have challenged each other in the polls of the general elections. But, in those days, Italy was still a democracy. Today it is a democratization , in which whoever conquers the Quirinale wins power. And the Quirinale is not won in the general elections. We understand the importance of the weeks ahead.

The post Here are the moves of Draghi and Pd to avoid being checked in the match for the Quirinale appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL on Wed, 24 Nov 2021 03:53:00 +0000.