The center-right misses the shoulder, Zingaretti smiles in the bunker, 5-star thud. And the Yes “distrust” the Parliament
The game of pre-electoral expectations that prepare the post-electoral spin we gladly leave it to the mainstream bubble that in these hours is telling you with contempt of ridicule the triumph of Zingaretti's Pd and the blow taken by the center-right leaders who, poor things, will have to roll up their sleeves and start again from the 15 regions they govern and from the paltry 49 percent that the polls at national level attribute to them …
Instead, we will try to offer you an analysis, perhaps partial given the extremely composite picture, but as honest as possible.
No, the center-right did not get the victory they were aiming for and hoped for. The head-to-head in Tuscany and the advantage of Fitto in Puglia foreseen by the polls on the eve did not materialize in the polls (will they get it right, sooner or later?). But he still came out the winner looking at what was up for grabs. It has still quite easily torn another historic stronghold, the Marche, from the left and now rules in 15 regions out of 20. In the regions where it ruled it has swept away with record percentages, even sweeping away its opponents in Veneto.
Yet, a bitter taste remains in the mouth for what appears to be another wasted opportunity, for having missed the shoulder not so much to the government, which as we will see hardly would have taken serious risks, but to the Democratic Party. The feeling is that of a mutilated victory that will not favor harmony within a coalition that undoubtedly has some weak points.
On the other hand, however, having averted a defeat, a Caporetto, certainly cannot pass for a victory, but at most for a skimpy draw. Having just avoided the humiliation, we now claim to support what was denied in the most absolute way on the eve, namely the national political value of the vote. That is, it is claimed that the voters have promoted government action and the Pd line of embrace with the 5 Stars.
Of some positive notes Zingaretti can certainly rejoice: the Democratic Party continues to show incredible resistance in some strongholds, actually more and more restricted. The feared arrival of the "right" in power is still confirmed as a formidable weapon of last resort. When all seems lost, just shout at the "fascist" and the voter responds. But above all, Zingaretti can be happy to have swallowed the 5 Star Movement and practically neutralized the Renzi threat.
In fact, since yesterday evening the balance of power between the majority parties has changed profoundly. Already hegemon in the Deep State and in the government structure (as a minority shareholder he controls Via XX Settembre …), now the Democratic Party returns to be a hegemonic force on the left even in the polls, with the 5 Stars now almost completely reabsorbed into the traditional left and the Bush of Renzi who (together with Più Europa) fails to be decisive in any challenge, not even in Tuscany. For the 5 Stars, 33 percent of 2018, but also 17 percent of last year's Europeans, seem like a distant memory. After Umbria, the alliance with the Democratic Party in Liguria was bankrupt and in the regions where they ran with one of their candidates they struggled to go into double figures (only in two regions), being practically canceled in Veneto (3 percent) and Tuscany (6 per cent). Not even a referendum victory can console. As the electoral flows show, in fact, the center-right voters contributed more significantly than the 5 Stars to the success of the Yes.
Clear, therefore, that with Renzi irrelevant and the 5 Stars increasingly rib of the left, their electorate largely reabsorbed, the Democratic Party strengthens its systemic centrality and this makes the executive more stable. From tomorrow it will be more difficult for the allies to say no to the Democratic Party on issues such as the Mes, the security decrees, or the electoral law. And, of course, on how to spend the phantom European funds …
But if the government comes out strengthened by this vote it is only for internal logics of the Roman palaces and internal relations to the majority, as we have seen, not because we can see a growth of consensus in the country of the forces that support it. Do not be fooled: the Democratic Party is increasingly in its ideological bunker, very far from the classes and productive territories of the country, closed in its electoral comfort zone, while the center-right is strengthening its grip and sowing in view of politics. Just think if in the next political elections the League were to collect the same consensus in Tuscany and Emilia Romagna that it has collected in the regional ones, adding it to that of the northern regions …
Only if the center-right had conquered Tuscany, an unlikely hypothesis even on the eve, would the government have wavered: questioning Zingaretti, and reopening the game for leadership, the Democratic Party would have become a factor of instability from a factor of stability.
But now, in the light of this vote and the centrality regained on the left, could the Democratic Party be tempted to get rid of its allies, settle the score, perhaps with a majority electoral law? Highly unlikely. He is already in government, and with "full powers". Why take the risk? At the top of his priorities now there is the Quirinale, this is the insane pact that holds the majority forces together, with Mattarella's blessing: to prevent the center-right from winning the early elections and, therefore, to get to elect the next president of the Republic in 2022. In addition, of course, to the attachment to armchairs… And everything else is subordinated and sacrificed to this power pact, the country condemned to substantial immobility and incoherent and dysfunctional policies.
Just at the moment when this glue was no longer enough, Covid-19 thought of providing a pretext to lock down the government, the state of emergency, and a further powerful incentive to stay together: 100 billion of additional debt and billions of the Recovery Fund to be distributed over the next few years.
Now, the victory of the Yes in the referendum on the one hand promises to lengthen the life of the legislature: the redesign of the colleges can easily turn into a Penelope canvas, not to mention the approval of a new electoral law, and the 345 fewer seats will strengthen the attachment to the chair of the current parliamentarians.
On the other hand, however, there is a gigantic question of the substantial legitimacy of the current Parliament. The number of deputies and senators no longer corresponds to that foreseen by the Constitutional Charter, it would therefore be advisable to adapt without delay to the popular will, expressed in such clear terms (70 percent against 30). And it would be an even more serious vulnerability if a Parliament "disheartened" by the citizens in its numerical consistency to elect the next President of the Republic.
Furthermore, it should also be noted that the relative majority party in Parliament is now reduced to a minimum in the country and has now ceded the leadership of the ruling coalition to a party that in 2018 had taken just over 18 percent and today is not far from that percentage.
We are under no illusion that this legitimation problem is being addressed and resolved as it should be. Pd and 5 Stelle, with the approval of the Quirinale, will have no difficulty in ignoring it. Suffice it to recall when, quite recently, an even more evident legitimation problem arose. In 2013, the Porcellum was declared unconstitutional, but the Democratic Party had no qualms about continuing to govern for the entire five-year term thanks to that law that had transformed its paltry 25 percent into a solid majority in the House. And, not satisfied, he did not even scruple to impose the election of Mattarella, always with a majority artificially created by an electoral law declared unconstitutional.
Returning to the center-right field, we must ask ourselves what was missing and what could still be improved. Certainly the choice of some candidates was unsuccessful. How do you come up with candidates already rejected by the voters in the same regions a few years earlier? We really had to put all the effort into losing in Puglia, where the opponents presented themselves divided into three pieces.
More questionable, however, whether or not it should review its identity and political offer. Once Forza Italia has effectively evaporated, Lega and Fratelli d'Italia should "moderate", move towards the center, or on the contrary their proposal is still too ambiguous, soft, to convince the large slice of the electorate who, disappointed by both the left both from the old center-right, does not go to the polls? Or again, as Daniele Capezzone never tires of repeating, would it take more Reagan and more Clint Eastwood?
The post The center-right misses the shoulder, Zingaretti smiles in the bunker, 5-star thud. And the Yes “mistrust” Parliament appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/il-centrodestra-manca-la-spallata-zingaretti-sorride-nel-bunker-tonfo-5-stelle-e-il-si-sfiducia-il-parlamento/ on Tue, 22 Sep 2020 03:46:00 +0000.