The slow and inexorable failure of the Ulivo / Pd: from the majority vocation to the return of the proportional

18 September 20204 years ago babelfish

1. There was a season of Italian politics characterized by the presence of large trees of slow growth and of centuries-old duration, which, chosen as symbols, first by a party, then by a coalition, should have marked a long life, while instead they are now delivered to the memories of those who were protagonists or spectators: the Oak by Achille Occhetto and the Olive Tree by Romano Prodi. In the void created by the inglorious sunset of the DC and the PSI, overwhelmed by Tangentopoli, two alliances – one from the center, Patto per Italia, with PPI and Segni, and another on the left, Alleanza dei progressisti, with the PCI refounded as PDS – challenge the pairing fielded by Silvio Berlusconi, the Pole of Freedom (Forza Italia / Lega Nord) and the Pole of Good Government (Forza Italia / An), in the light of the majority electoral law, with proportional correction, of 1993, the Mattarellum. This law replaced the proportional one that lasted for over forty years, starting from 1948, marking a clear solution of continuity with respect to the past, so much so that it was assumed as such as to implement the transition from the First to the Second Republic, without any constitutional amendment. And, indeed, it will condition the subsequent political elections, giving life to a multi-party bi-polar system – capable of ensuring an alternation of center-right and center-left coalitions in the government – destined to remain a dominant feature of the Italian political system. , even after the replacement of Mattarellum with Porcellum , until 2013.

After the 1994 defeat, it was natural to open a consultation between the center and left formations that had dealt with them separately, which resulted, first, in support for the Dini government, then, in the birth of the coalition under the banner of ' Olive tree . This, led by Romano Prodi, counted thirteen initials on the occasion of the 1996 elections (PDS, Movimento per Ulivo, PPI, Italian Socialists, Patto Segni, Democratic Alliance, Federation of Greens, the Network, Pri, Federation of liberals, Labor Federation, Unitary Communist Movement, Social Christians). As can be seen, a significant quantitative composition, such as to force a centralized distribution of single-member constituencies, with a substantial avoidance of compliance with the electoral base, a weakness of origin that would have first undermined the holding of the winning majority, then contributed to the same end of the Olive. But the relevant note here concerns the qualitative composition, given the massive presence of acronyms that can be defined as center-left, but without at all identifying with the historical left personified par excellence by the PDS.

The Olive tree wins the 1996 elections, taking advantage of the desertion from the center-right of the Northern League, giving life to the sequence of the Prodi, D'Alema, Amato Governments, during which there are some significant changes in the composition of the Olive Tree . Added to this are Italian Renewal, the Udeur, the Party of Italian Communists (PdCi) and the European Republican Movement (Mre); but the PDS becomes Left Democrats (DS) with the adhesion of the Labor Federation and the Social Christians; the PPI together with the newly founded Italian Renewal and the Democrats, heirs of the Movement for the Olive, constitute Democrazia è liberty-La Margherita; the Italian Socialists give life to the Italian Democratic Socialists (Sdi).

The quantitative composition remains very broad, so as to oblige the same centralized predetermination of the distribution of single-member constituencies; but the qualitative one denounces a progressive concentration in favor of the two new subjects, on the left on the DS and in the center on the Margherita, with a bipolar tendency within the original Olive Tree, which at the same time expresses a sort of division of tasks with respect to the so-called progressive electorate, with regard to the working class and, respectively, the middle classes. And it is the DS and the Margherita who lead the Olive tree in the 2001 general elections, with prime minister candidate Francesco Rutelli, not for nothing president of the Margherita, so as to highlight the importance given to the center of the coalition; but unsuccessfully against the center-right alliance, also led by Berlusconi, who, under the common name of the House of Freedom, has recovered the Northern League.

The subsequent political elections of 2006 are held with a new electoral law, Calderoli (nicknamed the Porcellum ), which introduces a diametrically opposite electoral system, fully proportional with a majority premium and thresholds for lists and coalitions. The Union , under the leadership of Romano Prodi, main components of the DS and the Margherita, narrowly wins the challenge against the House of liberties, led by Silvio Berlusconi. But, then, DS and Margherita, give life to the Democratic Party (Pd), with a radical change of strategy, because, by merging the historical left and the progressive center into a single party, the latter ends up covering by itself all the space of center-left, with a majority vocation, so as to make any open coalition on the extreme left and on the progressive centrist area superfluous. This affirmation of self-sufficiency is confirmed by the decision of the Democratic Party to present himself alone with Italia dei values in the 2008 political elections; with that the same path cultivated by the founder of the Olive Tree , born as a coalition, conceived as a Federation, created as a single party, is accomplished. Not without paying the cost of discovering itself in the moderate centrist area, as the 2008 political elections will reveal: the Democratic Party, which presented itself with only Italy of values, under the leadership of Walter Veltroni, is defeated by the Casa della Libertà and the Lega North, always with Berlusconi's leadership.

The situation is reversed with the 2013 political elections, where the center-left coalition, led by Per Luigi Bersani, with the Democratic Party and the Left Ecology and Freedom (Sel) as protagonists, narrowly beats the one led by Silvio Berlusconi, with alongside two subjects destined to grow, the already present Northern League and the newly established Brothers of Italy; without, however, having the majority necessary to make the government. The bipolar multi-party framework has changed radically, due to the conspicuous success of the 5 Stars, a movement born as an anti-system, transversal, not to be placed in a left-center continuum . Thus the Dems, now devoid of a bank in the center that certainly could not be constituted by the 5 Stars – as will be evident from the failed attempt by Bersani himself – find themselves living within them between a traditional left soul and a centrist soul, which will be successful with the coming to the government of Matteo Renzi, who manages to bring the Democratic Party to 40 percent in the 2014 European elections.

2. The challenge of a Democratic Party capable of a majority vocation seems to have been fulfilled, albeit obtained with a decisive policy characterized by the discontinuity with respect to the one that had marked its birth, that is, such as to cultivate projects and programs hitherto typical of the center-right , as typically exemplified in the Jobs Act. This could only lead to a break in the internal balance, with the split to the left of Leu, led by the former secretary Bersani himself; as well as an ebb of the previous breakthrough in the center, following the negative result of the referendum confirming the constitutional reform sponsored in the first person by Renzi himself, with the succession of the dull Gentiloni. In this fall in the credibility of the Democratic Party, the populist movements continued to undermine its electoral base, already 5 Stars, but increasingly also the new League, which has grown nationally; however, with a substantial diversity, only the League appeared to have a precise right-wing identity. It is not for nothing that the 5 Stars were considered to be completely alien from a timely positioning on the left / right line, with an unavailability to any alliance, which, however, will later prove to be a willingness to ally with both the League and the Democratic Party .

The confirmation is traumatically given by the political elections of 2018, held with the new electoral law of 2017, the Rosatellum-bis , a mix of majority and proportional, which strengthens the centrality of parties in the selection of candidates. Confirming its fall in credibility, the Democratic Party is largely emptied, with less than 19 percent, without any significant success on the part of Leu, standing at just over 3 percent: this is all that the heir of the Olive tree , risen to a single container of the center-left, brings home, after having squandered an entire electoral patrimony. Of course, not even the center-right can claim victory, given that despite having reached about 37 percent, not the parliamentary majority – here, among other things, the same phenomenon of erosion as the classic leading party has occurred, in the sense that as the Democratic Party also Forza Italia, no longer led by Berlusconi, yields primacy to the League, while a protagonist destined to grow, the Brothers of Italy, appears. To distribute the cards the real winner, 5 Stars, with a third of the votes cast, with which the succession is carried out under the Prime Minister himself, Giuseppe Conte, from a 5Stelle / Lega government to a 5Stelle / Pd one. Without entering into a well-known affair, we must observe the position taken by the Democratic Party, after its participation in the government, always aimed at making it appear as equal, despite its clear inferiority in terms of parliamentary presence; and, above all, to make people believe in a tendential programmatic homogeneity, despite the real and confessed reason for its willingness to make a majority with the 5 Stars was to avoid a new electoral consultation which, with the electoral law in force, would have handed the country over to a "sovereign" right. On the basis of a reading for which the sharp electoral loss would have been attributable to the desertion of its classic base, the ruling Pd accentuates its attention on the left, not least the cause of the split caused by Renzi, with the constitution of Italia Viva.

Now the Democratic Party, according to the voice of his secretary, Nicola Zingaretti, on the one hand claims the ability to represent the entire center-left, not without recovering Leu and Italy alive, with the revival of the majority vocation, therefore a self-sufficiency, which would seem to sound rhetorical given the current electoral income, but which is justified by reason of being the same Democratic Party as the basis of the democratic holding of the Republic, that is, the holder of the fullest constitutional legitimacy, even regardless of any confirmation coming from the polls. On the other hand, it realistically denies such self-sufficiency, by struggling to urge a union sacrée with the 5 Stars, with an overlap of tactical reasons (stopping the sovereign right) and strategic (tendential homogeneity of the programs).

This, however, implies a pro domo configuration typical of the 5 Stars, taking for granted that, in this alliance conducted on the verge of a quasi-identity, Grillo's movement would bring with it an already disintegrating electoral base; even that same base that would have abandoned the Democratic Party, which would therefore recover it indirectly.

All this was reflected in the alliance plan for the regional elections, where the Democratic Party would have wanted a 5-star ready to sacrifice its presence for the conservation of the "red" regions in danger, without conceding anything on the candidates, just for tactical regions. , those already mentioned to stop the “sovereign” right; as well as on the level of the referendum itself, with the obvious split within the Pd itself. Zingaretti rightly kept the yes firm, because it was the agreed price for the government, which was shared by the Chamber in its almost totality, without any public reaction, which certainly, raised now, must have seemed completely excessive to him, because the referendum had been requested. by a small patrol of right-wing parliamentarians, without which the game would already be over. If you want, Zingaretti was wrong in putting the electoral law in first place as a counterpart, a pure proportional system, with a threshold of 5 percent, not only and so much for the obvious opposition of Italia Viva and Leu, well below this percentage. , as well as the former olive growers, led by his noble leader, Prodi.

For when it is said by the hard and pure that the "yes" would end up altering the democratic balance of the country, even creating a privileged path for an authoritarian government, the problem is not here. First of all, there are those who fear that the "yes" would inevitably end up weakening the cultivated strategic project of caging the center-right, which was still a winner in the 2023 political elections, whatever the electoral law; and it would do so by substantially de-legitimizing this Parliament, which we would like, instead, to last in order to elect the new President of the Republic and to define and manage the projects of the Recovery Fund in the first instance. But the choice of no by the former olive trees concerns precisely the proportional electoral law, such as to deny the majority law at the base not only of the Olive tree, but also of the Democratic Party, hence its majority vocation. Even if it is highly probable that the "yes" will win, many "no" will affect the packaging of the future electoral law.

The post The slow and inexorable failure of the Olive / Pd: from the majority vocation to the return of the proportional appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL http://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/il-lento-e-inesorabile-fallimento-dellulivo-pd-dalla-vocazione-maggioritaria-al-ritorno-del-proporzionale/ on Fri, 18 Sep 2020 03:47:00 +0000.