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All the anomalies of a prime minister who raises the question of confidence in his election to the Quirinale

2 years ago babelfish

First the blackmail, now the negotiations, but without commitments: this is why Draghi has not yet convinced the parties … own consultations on the new government?

Yesterday's day of meetings, talks and blank ballots for the election of Sergio Mattarella's successor at the Quirinale. And cards still face down.

After Berlusconi's retirement, the only certain candidate at the moment, indeed self-nominated since the press conference on 22 December last, is Mario Draghi. The impression is that the 'roses', at this moment, are only functional to burn the names of those who are inserted.

The parties are obliged to follow the narrow path that could lead the current prime minister to the Quirinale, because he wants it very strongly and one cannot say no lightly to such an authoritative and cumbersome figure, without having at least "tried". So, that they try is not proof that they really want it …

The most evident obstacle between the former governor of the ECB and the highest hill is, undoubtedly, the widespread fear in the parties that the heterogeneous majority, and therefore the legislature, could not hold up if the prime minister were to move to the Quirinale. The first effect of this concern is that the puzzle for the election of the President of the Republic is intertwined with that on the new government that should be born after the eventual rise of Draghi al Colle.

Matteo Renzi, leader of Italia Viva to whom we owe the intuition of bringing Draghi to Palazzo Chigi in place of Conte, does not seem enthusiastic: "a hypothesis, but it stands only within a framework of political agreement", it must be " a political choice ”and“ this implies an agreement on the post-government government ”. A precondition for all parties, therefore, except for the Brothers of Italy, is a prior agreement for the continuation of the legislature.

"The overall government-Quirinal package is certainly a real issue, something that is on the field", confirms Renzi himself. So much in the field as to be at the center of the meetings between Salvini and the other party leaders, from Letta to Conte, yesterday afternoon, but probably also of the talks of the premier himself with the leader of the League, in the morning, and then with Enrico Letta, Silvio Berlusconi and Giuseppe Conte.

But is it normal for a prime minister who aspires to be elected at the Quirinale to actually open consultations on the new government with the leaders of the parties that should elect him?

And here we come to the serious anomaly, with constitutional implications, of a prime minister who can not only be elected head of state, but also strongly aspires to the highest office. An anomaly that we had already brought to the attention of our readers last December 23, commenting on the premier's year-end press conference. On the other hand, we remembered, perhaps it is no coincidence that in republican history a Prime Minister has never passed directly from Palazzo Chigi to the Quirinale.

The anomaly lies not so much in the fact that the balance of government depends on the game for the Quirinale, and the very survival of the legislature, as in the fact that this does not happen as a result of the dynamics between the parties, but of the political blackmail of a prime minister – and of course the parties that are blackmailed.

We have a prime minister who practically poses a question of trust to Parliament not on a decree or a budget maneuver, but on his own election to the Hill: either me, or the flood, or the fall of the government. Everyone can judge for themselves the levels of overflow from the constitutional provision.

We are observing the distortions produced by this anomaly these days. On the one hand, the negotiations between the parties are not limited to the name for the Quirinale, but also concern the name of Draghi's successor in Palazzo Chigi and the overall structure of the new government. On the other hand, a Prime Minister who, acting as President of the Republic in pectore, seems to have already started consultations with the parties for the choice of his successor in Palazzo Chigi and even with the personalities who could succeed him, as transpires from the meeting with Elisabetta Belloni, the number one in the secret services – not because he met her, but because he wanted to let people know that he had met her. If Draghi has so far refrained from negotiating on the names of individual ministers, it is only because he sees it as a trap – it would irritate those in office and trigger the brawl of would-be successors – not out of institutional sensitivity.

At the parties, Draghi has already formalized the blackmail: if they don't elect him, he leaves. Don't vote for me, I'm going home, but you risk going there too. In the apparently gentler terms used by him: he would not be willing to end up hostage in electoral skirmishes between parties, much less with a majority that had split over the election of the new president of the Republic.

If the main concern of the political forces is an early end of the legislature and, in the alternative, to continue to have Draghi at Palazzo Chigi as an "umbrella" during the election campaign year that will open once the Quirinale dossier is closed, the premier is saying they would run the greatest risk by not electing him.

This is the challenge launched by the premier. It is very difficult for the majority parties not to split over another candidate, man or woman. But it is also very difficult to agree on another name to lead the government. In the end, the only name for the Quirinale that would make Draghi's final weapon tick would be that of the outgoing president: Mattarella. If Draghi does not make it on the fourth ballot, the current majority would be induced, paradoxically, by his blackmail to play the Mattarella re-election card.

How, then, to read this phase? Are the parties working sincerely on Draghi's candidacy, therefore on the government puzzle? And would Mattarella be available in case of stalling? We cannot know. On the one hand, the parties cannot for obvious reasons say no to Draghi without at least trying, on the other, Mattarella cannot reveal his availability, although as a last resort: appearing in the race would not be appropriate in the light of all his declarations to the contrary. to the hypothesis of re-election and would make it seem unfair to Draghi.

Therefore, the agreement that would have been reached yesterday on the method / path, with the Prime Minister himself, could foresee three working hypotheses: the first , Draghi al Quirinale, but the current premier has not yet made commitments on driving and composition of the new government, remaining vague; the second : all parties, at least the majority ones, turn to Mattarella to ask him to stay; the third , a "super partes" name that does not represent a defeat for anyone (a woman? Cartabia?), but that is voted on by the entire majority that supports the government.

In the evening Salvini declared that he is "working to ensure that in the next few hours the united center-right offers not one but several quality proposals, women and men with a high institutional and cultural profile", but it could be a "fog of war" .

We can only assume that the League is actually working on Draghi, while Berlusconi is at the window waiting for a signal from the premier, or the Democratic Party, which could arrive in the next few hours. And that Draghi is first of all working to compact the center-right on him, in the hope that at that point Pd and 5 Stelle could not oppose. But the Democratic Party? He certainly could not express his no to Draghi, but it would remain a strong temptation: the sinking of his candidacy, in the polls by secret ballot or earlier, would open the doors to Mattarella, the only option able to recompose Pd and 5 Stars, divide the center-right and lay the foundations for the "Ursula majority", as well as to chain Draghi to Palazzo Chigi.

The post All the anomalies of a prime minister who raises the question of trust in his election to the Quirinale appeared first on Atlantico Quotidiano .

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Atlantico Quotidiano at the URL https://www.atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/tutte-le-anomalie-di-un-premier-che-pone-la-questione-di-fiducia-sulla-propria-elezione-al-quirinale/ on Tue, 25 Jan 2022 03:58:00 +0000.