Italy: Manufacturing has the lowest confidence level since 2020
Today Italy also reserves bad forecast data. Italy's manufacturing sector confidence index fell to 96.4 in September 2023 from a downwardly revised 97.7 the previous month, the lowest since November 2020, and missing market estimates of 97.7.
This was the third consecutive month of a faster decline below the 100 threshold, reflecting the deterioration of the Italian economy in a context of higher interest rates and consistent with the upward revision of the budget deficit expected by the of the government and the downward revision of GDP growth.
Current conditions worsen significantly, especially for orders (-19.3 vs -19.9 in August) and production (-14.7 vs -12.9), while future expectations for the economy in general worsen (-23 .7 vs -17.6), orders (0.5 vs 2.3), and production (0.5 vs 2.3).
Here is the graph with a one-year time horizon
In this five-year horizon we see how we have returned to the level of confidence of the covid-19 period when the future actually appeared dark
Therefore, high interests and worsening economic prospects are weighing down our manufacturing, which sees a gray-black future. What could be done? For the monetary side, little, for now, apart from complaining, and even that little is not attempted. From the point of view of fiscal policy, something could also be attempted, but, at the current moment, European constraints do not allow serious policies to support either demand, supply or investments.
Let's carry on like this, giving another kick to the can…
Thanks to our Telegram channel you can stay updated on the publication of new Economic Scenarios articles.
The article Italy: manufacturing has the lowest level of confidence since 2020 comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/italia-la-manifattura-ha-il-minimo-della-fiducia-dal-2020/ on Thu, 28 Sep 2023 12:24:31 +0000.