According to Confcommercio, the Italian economy is improving, with GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026.
The Italian economy is improving: the economic outlook has recently shown concrete signs of progress, supported by the decline in inflation, the recovery in purchasing power, and a more widespread recovery in consumption compared to previous months. This is according to the economic outlook from the Confcommercio Research Office. Growth prospects for 2026 are optimistic, with raw data at +0.9%, following +0.6% in 2025. They remain highly dependent on consumption trends, amid a progressive shift in spending to the tertiary sector, particularly related to leisure and services.
“Estimates and surveys from various (reliable) sources suggest that since the All Saints' Day weekend, spending intentions have increased compared to 2024 and the first part of 2025. Black Friday: spending of 4.9 billion euros, +19.5% at current values compared to 2024. December 8, Immaculate Conception long weekend, +4.9% of Italian travelers (gross of the differences in calendar days compared to 2024)” reads the report from the Confcommercio research office.
"The revival of consumption during Black Friday, Christmas, and the start of the sales is certainly a positive sign that confirms the recovery of confidence. To make growth more robust, it is necessary to continue reducing taxes on families and businesses, simplify bureaucracy, and create better conditions for the participation of young people and women in the labor market," commented Carlo Sangalli, President of Confcommercio, commenting on the positive data.
The report also states that " a significant shift in confidence has been observed since October-November: for businesses, it has been growing month-on-month since September for four consecutive months, approximately +3% compared to July; for households, +1.7% in December compared to November . Therefore, households' distrust is decreasing and their propensity to consume is increasing. Spending intentions are increasing compared to both 2024 and the first part of 2025. "
A significant shift in confidence has been observed since October and November: for businesses, it has increased month-over-month since September for four consecutive months, approximately +3% compared to July; for households, +1.7% in December compared to November. Therefore – according to the economic situation illustrated by Mariano Bella, Director of the Research Office – households' distrust is decreasing and their propensity to consume is increasing. Spending intentions are increasing compared to both 2024 and the first half of 2025.
The first results are already visible in the data (compared to 2024): Black Friday generated €4.9 billion in spending (+19.5%); Christmas spending shows a real increase of 2.8% per household; Italian travelers over the Immaculate Conception long weekend increased by 4.9%.
Real retail sales also performed well, recording two consecutive months of quarterly growth (+0.5% in October, +0.6% in November), a first since the beginning of 2024. Business confidence has also been recovering for four consecutive months. Tourism continues to make a positive contribution, with arrivals increasing by 1.6% in the two-month period from October to November. The strengthening of domestic demand in the fourth quarter (+0.5% year-on-year), particularly in November and December (+0.6% and +1%, respectively), significantly contributes to GDP growth, which is estimated to grow by 0.5% in January 2026 compared to December and by 1.2% year-on-year. Growth prospects for 2026 are moderately optimistic (+0.9%) and remain highly dependent on the evolution of consumption, in a context of progressive tertiarization of spending linked mainly to leisure and services (in December, +11.1% recreation and culture, +16.4% smartphones and PCs).
The article " For Confcommercio, the Italian economy is improving, GDP 2026 at +0.9%" comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/per-confcommercio-leconomia-italiana-e-in-miglioramento-pil-2026-a-09/ on Thu, 22 Jan 2026 12:23:57 +0000.