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After DeSantis’ presentation, Trump quits the race for the White House with a great advantage

If the elections were held only in Iowa, the first state to vote in the primaries, then the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, would have a lot to catch up.

According to the latest Emerson College poll, former President Donald Trump leads his main rival by 42 points (62%-20%) while the rest of the candidates are barely in the standings.

“Trump's lead in the caucus reflects his numbers in Emerson's poll of the New Hampshire primary in March, where he led DeSantis by 41 points,” wrote Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball in his analysis of the poll. survey.

“The former president's base continues to be voters under 35, 75% of whom support Trump, and voters without college degrees, 70% of whom support Trump. DeSantis' support is highest among voters with a postgraduate degree, at 29%, still lower than Trump's 37% with this group.

Furthermore, as DeSantis' campaign supporters cheer his general election eligibility, Trump is outscoring DeSantis against President Joe Biden as well, in a pair of hypothetical races.

Trump leads Biden by 11 points (49%-38), with 10% vowing to vote for a third-party candidate and only 3% undecided. DeSantis is 4 points (45%) weaker than Trump against Biden (38%), with a 7-point lead, with 11% picking a third-party candidate and 6% undecided.

Iowa is not a Biden-friendly state, as only 35% give him a positive endorsement for his job performance, compared to an approving majority of 54%.

Since Iowa and New Hampshire have long trailed in the presidential primary cycle, Biden has been looking to propel his favorite state, South Carolina, into first place in the nation. Biden trailed in the Democratic primary for the 2020 presidential election, until he pulled off a win in South Carolina, garnering the momentum that propelled him to the nomination.

74% say it is very (40%) or somewhat (34%) important that Iowa maintain its status as the number one country. Only 27% believe it is not very (16%) or not important at all (11%).

“62% of registered Democratic voters think it is important that Iowa remain the number one party in the nation, while 38% think it is of little or no importance,” according to Kimball.

"This figure compares with 86% of Republicans who think it matters and 14% who think it is of little or no importance."

The full results of the GOP primary poll:

  • Trump 63%
  • DeSantis 20%
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence 5%
  • Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley 5%
  • Senator Tim Scott, RS.C., 3%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy 2%
  • other 2%
  • Chris Sununu, Governor of New Hampshire 1%
  • Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson 1%
  • Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota 0.2%.

According to the poll, Biden is on the run in the much narrower field of the Democratic caucuses in Iowa: 69% support Biden, 11% Robert Kennedy Jr, 10% Marianne Williamson and the remaining 10% say they will support someone else.

“Ahead of the 2024 primary, President Biden is in a comfortable position,” Kimball noted, recalling Biden's poor performance in 2020. “Compared to his performance in the state in 2020, where he received about 16% of the Final votes, less than a third of Democratic caucus voters look to another candidate in 2024.

As for the issues, the economy is in first place for 31% of voters, followed by education (15%), "threats to democracy" (15%), immigration (10%), access to abortion (9 %) and healthcare (8%).

The Emerson College Polling survey of 1,064 registered voters was conducted May 19-22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Among the 442 registered Republican voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

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The article After DeSantis' presentation, Trump quits the race for the White House with a great advantage comes from Economic Scenarios .

This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL on Fri, 26 May 2023 07:00:36 +0000.