Asteroid 2024 YR4: a potential threat to Earth in 2032
A large asteroid, named 2024 YR4 , is on course for a potential collision with Earth in 2032. This celestial object, with an estimated diameter of 60 meters , represents a remote but not to be underestimated threat.
Space.com reported that the asteroid has a 1 in 83 chance of impacting our planet on December 22, 2032, one of the highest risks ever recorded for an object of this size.
Close encounter and active monitoring
According to NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies ( CNEOS ), 2024 YR4 is expected to come within 106,200 kilometers of Earth , a relatively short distance in astronomical terms. Currently, it is 27 million kilometers away from us. The asteroid was discovered by ATLAS project telescopes in Rio Hurtado, Chile, and has been under close observation ever since. Uncertainties about its orbital trajectory raise the possibility that the close encounter could result in a direct impact.
Risk level and Turin scale
Due to the risk of collision, 2024 YR4 has been placed on the impact risk list of both the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA. The asteroid scored a 3 on the Turin scale, a classification that indicates a close encounter that merits careful monitoring by astronomers, given the probability of an impact of more than 1%.
Trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4
Low probability of impact, but potentially significant consequences
Despite the alert level, experts call for calm. “The probability of impact is still very low and the most likely outcome will be a miss course,” David Rankin, engineer of the Catalina Sky Survey, told Space.com.
However, if 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the consequences could be significant. Rankin hypothesizes that the asteroid is comparable in size to the objects that caused the 1908 Tunguska event or the formation of Meteor Crater in Arizona. The impact could generate a powerful explosion in the atmosphere (airburst) and the formation of a large crater. The effects would be localized, but potentially devastating for the affected area.
Corridor of risk and uncertainty
The current "risk corridor", or the area of potential impact, extends from South America, crosses the Atlantic Ocean and reaches South Africa. However, experts point out that the asteroid's orbit is still poorly defined, making a definitive prediction impossible. With new observations and more precise orbital calculations, this estimate is likely to change. The potential damage depends on the size and composition of the asteroid, which are currently uncertain. Radar observations, ideal for estimating these characteristics, are not currently possible.
Future prospects and need for further observations
Astronomers expect to be able to more precisely determine the characteristics of 2024 YR4 in 2028, when the asteroid will come closer to Earth in a less risky way, passing within about 8 million kilometers. This step will allow us to refine estimates and better understand the real threat represented by this celestial object. Until then, constant monitoring and data analysis remain critical to determine the trajectory of 2024 YR4 and to prepare for a possible, albeit unlikely, impact scenario.
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The article Asteroid 2024 YR4: a potential threat to Earth in 2032 comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/asteroide-2024-yr4-una-potenziale-minaccia-per-la-terra-nel-2032/ on Thu, 30 Jan 2025 20:02:30 +0000.