What we are witnessing could be a funny Italian comedy, if the government of our country were not at stake in a dramatic moment. Renzi, who potentially takes from 2%, wants to bring down the government to take a few more chairs and to humiliate, as much as possible, the pentastellati. Yesterday, with Rosato's declarations according to which “The government no longer has the confidence” we reached the limit of ridicule to overcome it. Today Conte replies saying that it is not Italia Viva that can discourage the government, but it must be the Parliament and therefore nothing is in Renzi's hands. Is Conte hoping for Forza Italia's help to survive? So the latest intuition of the big shot, we could say the brain, of the PD, that is Dario Franceschini: if there is a crisis then it is better to go back to the polls, because this is how “Salvini against Conte” plays.
The polls would be the greatest gift to the center-right and for some, not trivial, reasons:
- First of all it would not be a Salvini match against Conte, because in itself the leader of the League is not crazy for political offices. Matteo from the north, unlike the Tuscan one, has a political flair that has no administrative ambitions, so he would have no problem agreeing a suitable politician with the rest of the center-right. How about a Borghi government, for example, or a Barra Caracciolo government, given that the President of the Republic would have to be chosen? Don't you think it would be protective enough for Italians and for the Constitution?
- However the CDX is presented as “Three-pointed”; especially now that Meloni has reached political maturity and that Forza Italia, in any case, sees a Berlusconi in good shape;
- there is a big chunk of Italy that can't wait to get the M5s and Conte to pay the bill. Let's not trust the polls: as an electoral campaign politician, Conte can't even tie his shoes to the duo Meloni Salvini;
- the center-left government would necessarily be a Conte government. All the other leaders of the PD what are they doing? D'Alema agrees to carry water forever?
- after having formed an unnatural government for "La financial" in 2018, should we now go to vote in the midst of an economic-health emergency due to the quarrels of Renzi, Conte and a band of desperate five stars? Could there be a greater sign of irresponsibility?
So I still don't believe in a fall of the Conte government and even less in elections. I give 20% probability to the first possibility, 5% to the second. Conte without the PdC does not exist, he goes back to being a civil lawyer, even a mediocre one, in the Alpa studio. So he will do anything to stay in office. Even his five-star cronies will accept anything in order not to disappear. Sure, I can be wrong, especially because there may be unexpected events that can get in the way, but do you really want them to have a crisis between Christmas and New Year with Italians forced to stay at home? Rather it would be better to stop joking with the skin of all of us and think of a real economic and health strategy in which, finally, Aifa, makes available to all doctors every possible device that, obviously, is not harmful to health, leaving the choice of therapy to the doctor. All requests that, in the Conte government, seem like science fiction
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/ma-voi-credete-veramente-nella-crisi-di-governo-io-sinceramente-no-ma-magari-mi-sbaglio/ on Mon, 21 Dec 2020 15:32:22 +0000.