We report a curious Winpoll survey which allows on the one hand to see the weight of Di Maio's new movement "Together for the future" and on the other to understand what is the difference between the electorate of the League and that of FdI, an element which could weigh on the next government, if there ever is.
We begin by presenting the results of hypothetical general elections in the two cases, that of the presence of "Together for the future"
Let's assume that the alternative movements not listed are likely, as always, to be underestimated. The prognosis for the M5s in both alternatives, with or without Di Maio's party, is poor: undivided it goes below 10%, it exceeds 10% if divided, but slightly and taking away votes especially from the PD and CSX. However, divided Together for Italy, it risks not exceeding the barrier and M5S does not reach 7%. A suitable epitaph should be found.
For the rest we would have a new winner, FdI, albeit in a much lower proportion than the one that had the M5s in 2018, but enough to give a majority to the CDX.
But the Winpoll poll also shows what are the differences between the center-right. One might think that the difference is related to support for the Draghi government, but this is not the case
the Lega and FdI voters judge the work of the Draghi government in almost the same way, however insufficient, but even slightly better FdI, which is in opposition, in theory, compared to the Lega. Those who judge the current government really badly are precisely the voters of the majority party, the M5s, whose elected officials, however, we know no longer respond to the base .. The PD is, of course, its strongest supporter, but the League, if it listened to the its constituents, should get out immediately.
What divides, or would divide, the League and the FdI the most is the position on sanctions and the sending of arms to Ukraine.
The voters of the League do not support the sending of arms to Ukraine and the sanctions, on the contrary they are strongly opposed to it. On the contrary, these are supported by the voters of FdI who are second in this only to the PD, indeed they are very similar.
Returning to the M5s, almost half of the polled people know about the split, but have no idea why it happened, and this shows the failure of Italian politicians and information …
So there are deep divisions in the electoral base of the different parties of the CDX that cannot be ignored in the formation of the next government. Paradoxically, in this field, a "Draghi" FdI + PD would be less unlikely than a pure CDX. However, the polls are not votes, so it still takes about nine months to actually know what Italians think, all without ignoring the problem of abstention.
The article Bye Bye M5s, Draghi “almost good” for FdI. The results of a curious Winpoll survey comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/bye-bye-m5s-draghi-quasi-bene-per-fdi-i-risultati-di-un-curioso-sondaggio-winpoll/ on Sun, 26 Jun 2022 08:23:08 +0000.