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Cease the Azerbaijani-Armenian fire; but this time the Russians are in control

Perhaps we are at a turning point in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan: yesterday a ceasefire was signed between the two parties which provides for heavy Armenian territorial transfers, but retains the connecting corridor between Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia, and also provides for deployment of Russian troops on the ceasefire line.

The agreement was signed by Armenian President Pashinyan and Azeri President Aliyev as well as by Putin as guarantor of the agreement. Military transport planes and columns of vehicles immediately left to transfer the Russian troops to the border line and thus allow the ceasefire not to end exactly like the previous ones, that is, to nothing.

The agreement was defined as "very painful, but necessary" by the Armenian President Pashinyan, and we can see it by comparing these maps, with the first:

while this is the current situation:

nearly half of Nagorno Karabakh has returned to Azerbaijani hands. This infuriated the Armenians and at the announcement of the conditions of the cease an angry crowd occupied the parliament in Yerevan

But it is not that Peshinyan had many alternatives: without Russian direct help the conflict was headed for a precise conclusion and Turkish aid to Azerbaijan had provided the latter with a military superiority that could not be faced by Yerevan. The Armenian president certainly played a part of his popularity, but he made a necessary and not postponable decision,

At this stage the winner appears Putin who on the one hand brings Yerevan back under his control, on the other hand he does not punish Azerbaijan which, however, was a friendly state. At the same time, Baku said it would like to deploy Turkish troops to have its side of the ceasefire line controlled. this would re-propose a very dangerous situation, of direct confrontation between Russia and Turkey, which we already see in Syria.

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The article Cease the Azerbaijani-Armenian Fire; but this time there are the Russians to check it comes from .

This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL on Tue, 10 Nov 2020 07:50:52 +0000.