Economic Scenarios

China: exports and trade surplus growing strongly. This means Trump’s tariffs will hurt

Chinese exports grew at a faster-than-expected pace in December as factories rushed to fill orders to overcome higher tariffs that US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose once he takes office .

Exports increased by 10.7% compared to a year earlier . Economists had forecast growth of about 7%. Here is the relevant graph

It was the ninth consecutive month of shipment growth and the highest in four years. For the full year 2024, sales increased 5.9% to $3.58 trillion, driven by agricultural products (4.1%), plastic products (5.4%), textile products ( 5.7%), raw aluminum and aluminum materials (15.2%), rare earths (6%), furniture and its parts (5.8%) and mechanical and electrical products (7 ,5%).

Here are the results in absolute value :

During this period, exports increased to Hong Kong (35.8%), South Korea (12.4%), Taiwan (9.3%), Canada (6.1%), Africa (6.9%). ) and ASEAN (2.0%), while they decreased towards the United States (-0.1%) and the EU (-4.4%). The decline in exports to the EU is a sign of the economic crisis affecting the old continent.

Imports also grew by one percent, exceeding experts' forecasts of a one percent contraction.

With exports exceeding imports, China's Trade Balance surplus rose to $104.84 billion.

Trump's tariffs are on the horizon

Trump has pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese goods and close some loopholes that exporters use to sell their products at lower prices in the United States.

If his plans were implemented, they would likely raise prices in America and squeeze sales and profit margins of Chinese exporters.

According to Zichun Huang of Capital Economics, Chinese exports will likely remain strong in the short term as businesses try to "get ahead of" potential tariff increases.

“Outbound shipments are likely to remain strong in the near term, supported by further global market share gains thanks to weakness in the real effective exchange rate,” he wrote in a note.
But exports are likely to weaken later in the year if Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs, so what we're seeing is nothing more than the building of stockpiles of goods abroad (including in allied countries of Washington) to prevent the immediate effects of the sanctions promised by Trump.

However, these fears from Chinese exporters are also a sign that Trump's economic policy promises are hitting the mark and are actually creating fear among Chinese exporters.

Record total exports and trade

Officials briefing reporters in Beijing said the total value of China's imports and exports reached a record 43.85 trillion yuan (nearly $6 trillion), up 5 percent from the previous year.

China is the world's largest exporter and the main trading partner of more than 150 countries and regions, said Wang Lingjun, deputy director general of the Customs Administration. These data only confirm Beijing's centrality in world trade, a position that the USA will have difficulty eroding.


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The article China: exports and trade surplus growing strongly. This means Trump's tariffs will hurt comes from Economic Scenarios .


This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/cina-export-e-surplus-commerciale-in-forte-crescita-questo-significa-che-i-dazi-di-trump-faranno-male/ on Mon, 13 Jan 2025 07:00:48 +0000.