China: exports still grow even after Trump’s tariffs. Are they circumventing the tariffs?
In theory, China appears not to be affected by Trump's tariffs. Exports from China grew 8.1% year-on-year to $315.7 billion in April 2025, far exceeding market forecasts of 1.9%.
However, the latest figure marked a sharp slowdown from March's 12.4% rise – the fastest growth since last October – as shipments to the United States were held back by Trump's tariffs and uncertainty over trade talks between Washington and Beijing.
Among trading partners, exports increased to Japan (7.8%), Taiwan (15.5%), Australia (5.8%), EU (8.3%) and ASEAN (20.8%), while decreased to the United States (-21.0%) and South Korea (-0.3%).
In the first four months of 2025, exports increased 6.4% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching $11.69 trillion. During the period, shipments grew for agricultural products (5.0%), fertilizers (22.1%), textile products (3.8%), and raw aluminum and aluminum products (0.5%).
On the other hand, exports of rare earths (-15.3%) and clothing (-1.5%) decreased. Exports to the United States fell 2.5% through April.
Let's see the relevant graph:
Analyzing the Vitenam data, we had seen a boom in imports from China and exports to the USA, and the impression is that a good part of the export boom in ASEAN countries is nothing more than a way to avoid the duties imposed by Trump by transiting through countries which, such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Vietnam, are currently hit by duties of only 10%, awaiting trade agreements or the imposition of higher duties. I don't think this data will be ignored by Commerce Secretary Bessent.
Imports, on the other hand, are still slightly decreasing compared to the previous year:
Given that in any case the import includes raw materials and semi-finished products also used in exports, and that this import has not increased in any case, rather it has decreased, the impression is that the increase in exports is mainly made up of stocks, not new production, and that it simply bypasses the US duties, for now.
Confirming this is the Trade Balance , certainly not exciting, even if positive:
So not all that glitters is gold, even in China. I think that at this stage we are still in transition towards Trump's new world and we are trying to get around it with some cunning, but we cannot imagine that this will escape the American government, which will take the relevant measures to avoid being deceived, unless a broader agreement emerges between the parties during the next talks in Switzerland .
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The article China: exports still grow even after Trump's tariffs. Are they circumventing the tariffs? comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/cina-le-esportazioni-crescono-ancora-anche-dopo-i-dazi-di-trump-stanno-aggirando-i-dazi/ on Fri, 09 May 2025 10:00:17 +0000.