China: record trade surplus, but in March, before the “Tariff War”
In March, before the outbreak of the tariff war, China saw a boom in exports and trade surplus . Exports from China surged 12.4% year-on-year , reaching $313.9 billion in March 2025, far exceeding market forecasts of 4.4% and accelerating sharply from the 2.3% increase recorded in the January-February period.
The increase in foreign sales was the fastest since last October, reflecting an anticipation of Trump's U.S. tariffs, which take effect in April.
In the first quarter of 2025, exports increased 5.8% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching $853.7 billion.
Over the period, shipments grew for agricultural products (5.7%), fertilizers (42.7%), mechanical and electronic products (7.6%), household appliances (8.7%), mobile phones (0.4%) and LCDs (8.4%), all products feared to be blocked by tariffs.
On the other hand, exports of rare earths (-10.9%), steel (-4.8%) and ceramic products (-19.3%) decreased. Among trading partners, exports increased to the United States (4.5%) , Japan (2.8%), Hong Kong (8.3%), India (13.8%), the United Kingdom (6.2%), the EU (3.7%) and ASEAN (8.1%), while they decreased to Russia (-6.3%), South Korea (-1.7%) and Australia (-4.6%).
Here is the relevant graph:
This export boom also had an effect on the trade balance: China's trade surplus rose to $102.64 billion in March 2025, up from $58.65 billion in the same period the previous year, exceeding market expectations by $77 billion.
The sharp increase was largely driven by a 12.4% year-on-year surge in exports, the fastest increase since last October, much faster than market forecasts of a 4.4% rise, as factories rushed to ship goods ahead of US President Trump's upcoming tariffs.
Meanwhile, imports fell 4.3%, compared to market expectations of a 2% decline and following a slump of 8.4% in January-February, due to weak domestic demand. The trade surplus with the United States stood at $27.58 billion in March. In the first quarter of the year, the country recorded a surplus of $273 billion, with exports increasing by 5.8% and imports decreasing by 7.0%. During the period, the trade surplus with the United States reached $76.65 billion, with exports increasing by 4.5% and imports decreasing by 1.4%.
Here is the relevant graph:
March was the last month before the imposition of duties and therefore the increase in direct and indirect exports to the USA, via Hong Kong, is evident. Those who were able sent everything that could be sent by March, given that the deadline for duties had been notified in time. It will be interesting to analyze what will happen, however, starting from March: if duties towards the EU and other countries have been suspended for 90 days, those towards China, at 145%, will be maintained. The news is that of a freeze in activity for some companies. In a month we will know if it is true.
Thanks to our Telegram channel you can stay updated on the publication of new Economic Scenarios articles.
The article China: record trade surplus, but in March, before the "Tariff War" comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/cina-record-di-surplus-commerciale-ma-a-marzo-prima-della-guerra-dei-dazi/ on Mon, 14 Apr 2025 10:00:02 +0000.