Will Bonafede take Conte to the bottom? The justice minister, one of the culprits of the failure of the yellow-green government with his inability to prepare an adequate reform of the judicial system, now risks being the element that will sink the Conte II government and, perhaps, will cut the legs of all Foggia lawyer.
What plays against the current PdC?
a) The numbers. 156 in favor of the government in the Senate, against 140 against and 16 were valid only for the trust. The Renzians are clearly opposed to Bonafede's justicialism, mixed with a good dose of inefficiency, and we would be 156 156. Nencini, socialist, and Rossi, ex FI, who voted for confidence, will hardly vote for good faith, and the senators for life they are back home and there is no need to count too much on it. The safe numbers for government are 151 to 156 for the opposition. Everything depends on Renzi's position, who can send Bonafede home whenever he wants if he wants.
b) If Bonafede is rejected, Conte may be tempted to continue alone, or rather to offer the adversary the spoils of the minister's appointment. A Renzian minister of justice, or of Renzian choice, could be the olive branch for the birth of Count III, but it would also be a great humiliation for the M5s. Betrayed sovereignty, accepted the ESM, if they take away the justicialism that remains?
c) At this point, then, would we go towards a Count III or towards elections? Count III would carry on a power crisis for another 2 years, but would allow the election of the President of the Republic. In the end, however, given the bankruptcy trend on all fronts, a huge bill would be paid. Isn't it better to settle matters early and salt some places of power?
d) We speak of "Proportional"; but it could not be a pure proportional. There would be a minimum threshold, perhaps 5%, which would probably see the favorable vote of the Center-right and the PD, and perhaps the M5s. The threshold, as seen in Germany, nevertheless rewards aggregations. In Italy the CDU no longer exists: 25 years of “Leuropeismo” have destroyed the middle class that still exists across the Alps. Whoever thinks of favoring the rebirth of the center with the proportional method risks being burned. even Forza Italia resists only if it is firmly allied to one of the two parties, the CDX;
e) Why live 2 years of crisis and risk other bad adventures, considering that there are several scandals in heating, such as, for example, those related to masks, the flop of vaccines and vaccination pavilions, the case of the Palladino family, just for talk about current. Why make them rot and explode? If something happens to Arcuri, the whole government is over. Is Hope under the attack of the Bergamo prosecutor for the lack of the epidemic plan, if the investigation takes a bad turn? Isn't it better to quit the experience before further damage?
f) Interviewed in Non è l'Arena by Minzolini, Salvini flatly denied the availability of a broad coalition government. Let's be serious, could the leader of the League open up this possibility to a few million inhabitants? The availability of the CDX for a similar solution will only be seen when a serious alternative emerges. Until then the game will be covered;
g) The elections would now prevent Conte from forming his own party. At the most it would absorb some escapes from other formations and would add a "Center" wing to the devastated Five Star Movement. In theory, both M5s and PD should prefer voting now to six months from now.
So it is if you like. by Thursday at the latest we will know what will be the future of the rising Conte government.
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/conte-ed-i-conti-in-senato-si-va-verso-la-conta-ma-non-saranno-meglio-le-dimissioni/ on Mon, 25 Jan 2021 15:43:36 +0000.