Yesterday the news spread that the Turkish leader Recep Erdogan has expressed his opposition to the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO. The unfavorable opinion is officially expressed as retaliation for the policy of welcoming the political opponents of the Turkish president, especially Kurds, who would have found a safe haven in the Nordic countries, with some of them even members of parliament. Erdogan even defines these countries as "Terrorists' Paradise"
Erdogan says Scandinavia countries have become a safe haven for terrorism. “They are even members of the parliament in some countries,” he said.
"Sweden has become a home for PKK and other terror groups. We don't view their NATO membership positively ” pic.twitter.com/OqUMtZEPv2
– Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) May 13, 2022
Given that the decision to join NATO must be taken unanimously by the 30 members, and we know that even the Croatian president had strong doubts, Erdogan's position casts doubt on the possibility of Helsinki and Stockholm to join the alliance . If the official excuse is to welcome political opponents, it is clear that Turkey wants to maintain an intermediate position with Russia. To put it simply: Erdogan wants to keep his foot in two shoes, as always.
This crisis highlights the deep cracks in the alliance. Ankara's dual policy has been evident for some time: more outside than inside, especially as regards the Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa. We must not forget that the military confrontation between Turkey, Greece and Cyprus was reached on the subject of the Greek islands and gas in the eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, the politics of France and Germany appear increasingly conflicting with that of Washington, much more now than in the period of the Trump presidency. The entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, an express provocation towards Russia, makes the situation even more tense, and it is not certain that it will be resolved in the short term.
However, a part of NATO wants to close the encirclement of Moscow from the North, so it is unlikely to give up the integrated alliance project with the Nordic countries. Personally I believe that the result will be the birth of a new alliance, a "NATO 2.0", which takes on board only the countries most threatened by Russia, which therefore seek more the military umbrella of the US and the UK. A hint of this evolution can be seen in recent statements by Boris Johnson who said he was willing to provide a " Temporary Military Shield " to Finland and Sweden that would cover the transition period prior to joining the Atlantic Alliance. Obviously, the United Kingdom alone can give very few guarantees of security, so it would pave the way for a US intervention, already understandable by the enthusiasm with which Biden has welcomed the Nordic countries.
So we would have a NATO 2.0 based on bilateral or multilateral guarantee pacts between countries that are not yet officially in the alliance. Who would be part of it? Definitely the USA and the United Kingdom, then Sweden, Norway and Finland, but probably also Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Baltic Republics. Romania and Bulgaria could also be added to this block. All on the basis of agile multilateral defense pacts that would graft onto NATO by exploiting its current structures.
It's Italy? Let's assume that obviously no one will ask the Italian people for anything, either directly or indirectly. Italy is a train in which citizens are mere passengers, but whose direction is not chosen by them, at most they can choose to get off and leave. The Draghi government went to Washington promising peace, but came back ready to send weapons that we don't have, by the way, to Ukraine without even needing a parliamentary vote. On the 19th he will report to the Chambers on the international situation, but there will be no vote, what is the use? Draghi has already decided for everyone …
The article Does the sultan say no to Finland and Sweden in NATO? A new Atlantic Alliance will be born comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-sultano-dice-no-a-finlandia-e-svezia-nella-nato-nascera-una-nuova-alleanza-atlantica/ on Sat, 14 May 2022 07:39:37 +0000.