The German elections are over and we have the majorities that will rule, rightly or wrongly, what is the economic engine and the political Dominus (as long as others allow them to do so) of Europe. Now we want to introduce them to you and give you some small comments on the subject.
The resulting possible scenarios are indicated by this graph:
1) "Semaphore" SPD + Verdi + FDP : 416/735 seats
2) Jamaica (CDU + Verdi + FDP ): 406/735 seats
3) Grosse Koalition ( CDU + SPD ): 402/735 seats
4) Red Red green (Linke + spd + Verdi): does not have the majority for very few votes
let's see the alternatives:
“Semaphore” appears, at this moment, the most probable option, at least as it appears from the post-electoral talks. The biggest problem in the field seems obvious: the Greens in government with the FDP. the differences are very strong, with the former having an anti-market vision, and the latter close defenders of liberalism. FDP has been very critical of the climate policies requested by the greens and we would certainly have their rationalization and a decrease in their weight from a fiscal point of view. An agreement that is not easy, which would have as its basis the desire to do away with the long Merkel era and with the power apparatus of the CDU: Because chairs are also important in Germany …
“Jamaika”: the name derives from the colors of the Jamaican flag, and has already been tried in the past, although without any success. At the time, it was the FDP that drew back, giving birth to the latest version of the Grosse Koalitione. Also in this case it would be a question of finding a balance between the FDP and the Greens, while the CDU would be happy to defend a part of its own block of power:
“Grosse Koalitione”: the simplest solution, because it is only the continuation of the previous one, and the least probable one, and because, in fact, it would not mark the fracture that the SPD can only desire. Scholz must mark a break and this can only come from a sharp political change. then, if the other solutions prove to be impassable, perhaps due to a stiffening of the greens, then he could return to the field before the early vote;
"Red Red Green": does not have the numbers for a handful of votes, and can hardly get support from the CDU or FDP. But who knows.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN EUROPE. If the CDU were excluded from the majority in Germany, it is useless to deny that there would be repercussions in Europe as well. The EPP group, already divided between Mediterranean people (Spaniards, Italians, but not only) would be even more pushed to signal their opposition to an increasingly red and green majority, in which they count less and less. The coup to the CDU could lead to resettlement in the European groups and some might be pushed to ask for a rapprochement with the ECR and I> D, rather than with the socialists. A big problem for Von Der Leyen.
WHAT HAPPENS FOR ITALY? Nothing. The presence of the FDP is a guarantee of a strong rigidity on monetary matters and we would have even greater pressure to get the ECB out of a policy of monetary softness, while there would be an ever greater push towards the return to action of the Maastricht parameters.
The article Germany: here are the possible majorities and what it will mean for us comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/germania-ecco-le-possibili-maggioranzze-e-cosa-significhera-per-noi/ on Mon, 27 Sep 2021 14:33:40 +0000.