Germany in decline in the fourth quarter of 2022. Energy has its weight…
We are now heading towards recession, for the time being read, and guided by the locomotive of Europe. Germany's gross domestic product shrank by 0.2% quarter on quarter in the last three months of 2022, after an upwardly revised 0.5% expansion in the prior period and defying expectations of market stagnation, according to a preliminary estimate. The contraction in Europe's largest economy has been driven mainly by a decline in household consumption, against a backdrop of rising interest rates and stubbornly high inflation. On an annual basis, economic growth slowed to 1.1% in the fourth quarter, the weakest since the 2.1% contraction recorded in the first quarter of 2023.
Here is a short-term chart
And one that instead allows you to see the situation a little more in perspective
Eventually the demolition of cheap energy supplies is also having its effect on the German system, demonstrating that much of the German competitive advantage was based only on the low prices of Russian gas. Finished as an advantage, Berlin is also starting to have competitive difficulties that have repercussions on growth. To this we must add the compression of private consumption always caused by the high cost of electricity and gas, a fact which has affected the entire population. We must also expect the first quarter of 2023 to show a minus sign in growth, despite the improvement in business confidence indicators. There is talk of a "mild recession", but we can only say this ex post.
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The article Germany in decline in the fourth quarter of 2022. Energy has its weight … comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/germania-in-decrescita-nel-quarto-trimestre-2022-lenergia-ha-il-suo-peso/ on Mon, 30 Jan 2023 11:00:07 +0000.