Global Warming: UN Lowers Estimates to +2.8°C with US Out of Agreement
The United Nations, through its Environment Programme (UNEP) , has released its usual report on the emissions gap, bringing moderately positive news. Current global climate policies, according to the UN, are leading to warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century (compared to pre-industrial levels).
This seems like an improvement, considering last year's forecast was +3.1°C. All this without doing anything, given that only Europe is implementing measures to control CO2, and the rest of the world is increasingly turning to coal.
However, as is often the case when reading technical reports, the devil is in the details. UNEP candidly explains that part of this "improvement" is the result of adjustments, including:
- A -0.1°C is due to “methodological changes” in the calculations.
- A +0.1°C (negative) is caused by the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement.
It is significant that a trivial methodological change has the same impact as the entire US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on emissions reductions, meaning that the various regulations do not have a significant impact and are reduced to a statistical correction.
The 1.5°C target: a thing of the past
The report confirms what was already clear to many: the 1.5°C target, agreed upon in Paris, is effectively dead. The UN says it is "very likely" it will be exceeded within the next decade.
According to the UN, 2024 will be the hottest year on record, signaling the futility of the set limit. The authors of the report use diplomatic language to describe the defeat: "The main challenge ahead is to maintain this temporary and minimal overshoot." A polite way of saying that the goal has failed and the hope is that things won't get too bad.
The harsh reality of numbers
UN Secretary-General António Guterres uses a decidedly less diplomatic tone and speaks openly of "climate collapse." The reason is simple:
- 1.5°C target : Would require a 55% cut in emissions by 2035 (compared to 2019).
- Target 2.0°C : Would require a 35% cut.
- Reality (National Plans) : Full implementation of all announced National Climate Plans (NDCs) would lead to a reduction of just 15%, if any at all.
If countries respected all their commitments (optimistic scenario), warming would still remain between 2.3°C and 2.5°C.
The G20: Big Emitters, Little Progress
The UN, as usual, points the finger at the economically most powerful countries, the G20, which are responsible for the vast majority of emissions. Not only are these countries not on track to meet their (already inadequate) 2030 targets, but they have seen their emissions increase by 0.7% in 2024.
Perhaps the UN expects the West to commit economic/industrial suicide in favor of China and the newly industrialized countries that have set very long-term goals, 2050 or beyond, to abandon fossil fuels. Thus, the damage to Western industry benefits those with no climate goals at all.
Questions and Answers
How much will the Earth warm according to new UN forecasts? According to a recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), current global policies will lead to warming of 2.8°C by 2100. This is a slight reduction from the 3.1°C predicted last year. However, the report specifies that 0.1°C of this improvement is due to "methodological changes." If all countries fully met their national climate commitments (optimistic scenario), warming would be between 2.3°C and 2.5°C.
Is the 1.5°C target still achievable? No, according to the UN, the 1.5°C target is now considered "inevitable." It is "very likely" that this threshold will be consistently exceeded within the next decade. The year 2024 has already been, on average, above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The UN states that the new challenge is no longer "preventing" this exceedance, but ensuring it is "temporary and minimal," with the hope of returning below that threshold in the future.
Why do the forecasts improve if G20 emissions have increased? It's an apparent contradiction. Emissions from G20 countries (the largest contributors) actually increased by 0.7% in 2024. The slight improvement in the long-term forecast (from 3.1°C to 2.8°C) is not due to recent actions, but partly to "methodological changes" (i.e., how the UN calculates) and partly to the fact that, on a decadal scale, the deployment of technologies like wind and solar is accelerating, reducing costs and improving efficiency, making the transition potentially faster than previously estimated.
The article Global Warming: UN Lowers Estimates to +2.8°C with USA Out of Agreement comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/riscaldamento-globale-lonu-abbassa-le-stime-a-28c-con-gli-usa-fuori-dallaccordo/ on Tue, 04 Nov 2025 18:50:50 +0000.