Gold: If missiles block flights, Dubai stays grounded and bullion soars in futures.
As Middle Eastern geopolitics shifts from words to action, with the United States, Israel, and Iran exchanging blows, the gold market is facing a physical paradox. While the precious metal's value is soaring, driven by uncertainty, the "physical metal" risks being stuck in warehouses. Dubai, a crucial hub for global trade, is currently isolated from dedicated air freight.
Gold rose in value for four days, only to retreat yesterday, as we see from Tradingeconomics:
Dubai's logistics blockade
Gold doesn't travel by ship like grain or oil. For security reasons and, above all, insurance costs, bullion is transported almost exclusively by air . The suspension of flights to and from Dubai, decided by numerous airlines following the military escalation, has created a significant logistical bottleneck.
Dubai is not only a luxury tourist destination, but a key supplier to refining and consumption centers such as:
- Switzerland: world refining hub, with Valcambi , the largest refinery in the world, which is in the Canton of Ticino;
- India: Largest retail market for physical gold in years;
- Hong Kong: Gateway to the Asian Market.
According to industry sources reported by Reuters , physical flows will be disrupted for several days. How much this will impact global supplies will depend solely on the duration of hostilities and the reopening of air corridors.
Financial Markets vs. Physical Market
While cargo ships remain grounded, Bloomberg and Reuters markets are rallying. Gold futures jumped 3% Monday morning, approaching the all-time highs reached on January 29 at $5,594.82.
However, traders remain calm: major financial hubs such as New York (COMEX), London, Zurich, and China remain open. At this stage, the price is driven by financial flows and the search for safe havens, rather than by the actual shortage of physical metal in jewelry stores or central banks.
Inventory Situation: COMEX Data
Looking at COMEX technical data, February deliveries were solid, in line with December volumes. While we haven't reached the record highs seen in 2025, demand remains historically strong.
| Period | Delivery Volume | Compared to the Historical Average |
| December | High | Above average |
| February | Constant | Very strong |
| March Perspective | Geopolitical Uncertainty | To be monitored |
Inventories at the beginning of March seemed sufficient to cover demand, but the new scenario of total or partial war in the Middle East could quickly change the situation. It will be interesting to observe whether the shortage of "physical gold" ready for delivery due to the flight disruptions will ultimately lead to a decoupling (a disconnect) between the price of paper contracts and that of the actual metal, something very dangerous for the paper market.
In conclusion, gold remains the thermometer of fear. But if the fever rises too high, the risk is that there won't be enough planes to transport the "medicine" where it's needed.
The article Gold, if missiles block flights: Dubai remains grounded and the bullion soars in futures comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/oro-se-i-missili-bloccano-i-voli-dubai-resta-a-terra-e-il-lingotto-vola-nei-future/ on Tue, 03 Mar 2026 09:00:49 +0000.