India-Pakistan conflict: the escalation does not stop, on the contrary the areas of conflict are expanding

The early hours of May 9, 2025 marked a further dramatic escalation in the confrontation between India and Pakistan, with intense cross-border military activity and a parallel war of declarations.

These events are part of a spiral of violence that began with the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22 , but the dynamics observed in the last 16 hours – starting from 00:00 UTC on May 9 – indicate a dangerous leap in quality. The nature of the two contenders as nuclear powers accentuates the gravity of the situation, an aspect highlighted with concern by various international analyses.

Despite the activation of communication channels at the level of National Security Advisors, the rapidity with which military actions and reactions follow one another suggests an extremely low threshold of tolerance on both sides. In a chaotic situation, in which information is confused, maneuvered and fragmented, there is a high risk of miscalculation , i.e. errors of evaluation that could have catastrophic consequences.

The coexistence of dialogue and active conflict paints a picture of extremely precarious equilibrium, in which rhetoric and military actions could easily exceed the capacity of diplomatic channels to contain the crisis.

Military and Technical Dynamics

Over the past 16 hours, the military confrontation between India and Pakistan has manifested itself through a complex interaction of airstrikes, missile responses , clashes along the Line of Control (LoC) and alleged, but controversial, naval operations, all in a war of social

1. Air and Missile Attacks and Counterattacks

During the night between 8 and 9 May and in the early hours of 9 May, there was an intense exchange of offensive and defensive actions.

• Indian Action: The Indian Army said on Friday morning (9 May) that it provided an “ adequate response ” to a series of attacks coordinated by the Pakistan Armed Forces along the entire western border, including the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir. The Indian Ministry of Defense had already declared late on Thursday that military stations in Jammu, Pathankot and Udhampur had been targeted by drones and missiles of Pakistani origin, but that the threats had been neutralized without losses.
  Indian defense sources further detailed on Friday morning that over 50 Pakistani drones were neutralized during a large-scale operation by Army Air Defense units , employing weapon systems such as L-70 guns, ZU-23mm, Shilka self-propelled systems and other anti-drone technologies. To counter these attacks, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has activated its Integrated Anti-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Grid and deployed advanced air defense systems, including the S-400 Triumf (Russian-made), the Barak 8 MRSAM (Israeli-Indian) and the indigenous Akash. At least eight missiles launched from Pakistan towards places like Satwari, Samba, RS Pura and Arnia were reportedly intercepted.

Indian media sources reported the shooting down of Pakistani aircraft, specifically F-16 and JF-17 fighters, in the early hours of May 9 , a claim promptly denied by Pakistan's Information Minister. There is even talk of the shooting down of a Pakistani AWACS .

India also claimed to have hit and neutralized Pakistani air defense systems in Lahore on the morning of May 9, with NDTV adding the neutralization of Pakistani missile systems aimed at 15 Indian cities. Indian kamikaze drone attacks, presumably of the Israeli-made Harop type, were also reported on several Pakistani cities including Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi (where the cricket stadium was reportedly damaged), Attock and Bahawalpur in the early hours of May 9. Pakistan, for its part, has claimed responsibility for shooting down a significant number of these drones, estimated at between 25 and 30 units.

• Pakistani Action: Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (DG ISPR), Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, categorically rejected Indian claims of Pakistani attacks on 15 Indian locations on May 9, calling them “totally false”. Instead, it accused India of launching three shells on its soil in Amritsar with the intention of stirring up anti-Pakistan sentiment, a narrative also supported by Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar. Pakistan denied carrying out attacks on Pathankot, Jaisalmer and Srinagar in the early hours of May 9. Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar stressed that Pakistan has so far operated exclusively with a "defensive response." Despite this, the ISPR DG issued a stern warning: “When Pakistan strikes, it will be unmistakable and undeniable… its reverberations will be felt across the world.”

The intensity and nature of air and missile exchanges, using advanced drones and sophisticated defense systems, combined with fierce information warfare and competing claims of success, suggest the conflict is evolving and risks spiraling out of control. It is not just about inflicting material damage, but also about demonstrating technological superiority and shaping the perception of events both within their respective countries and on the international scene. This dynamic configures a sort of "techno-psychological war", where the technological component serves both as a direct military instrument and as a lever of psychological deterrence and assertion of dominance. At the same time, the “war of narratives” aims to consolidate internal support and influence the international community, making it extremely complex to discern the objective truth of events.

2. Clashes along the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB)

In parallel with the air operations, the Line of Control and the International Border were the scene of renewed and intense war activity. In the early hours of Friday, May 9, there was a resurgence of fighting along the LoC, with the Indian Army claiming to have responded effectively to Pakistani ceasefire violations in key sectors such as Kupwara and Uri. Indian sources confirmed the continuation of these violations also on the morning of May 9, underlining how India foiled the attacks.

Al Jazeera described the situation in Srinagar along the LoC as "very tense", characterized by exchanges of fire and artillery shelling for the third consecutive night, between 8 and 9 May. Another significant episode saw the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) foil an infiltration attempt in the Samba (Jammu) sector on the night of 8-9 May. The operation, according to the BSF, ended with the killing of seven terrorists and damage to a Pakistan Rangers post.

The persistence and intensification of fighting on the LoC, in conjunction with air and missile attacks, does not appear to be coincidental. Rather, they indicate a possible expansion of the conflict on multiple fronts, a strategy which, if confirmed, exponentially increases the risk of civilian casualties and uncontrolled escalation at the tactical level. Civilian populations residing along the LoC are the most exposed, as evidenced by the damage to homes and reported casualties. This situation on the ground, with its inherent volatility, could easily generate incidents capable of rapidly escalating, further complicating de-escalation efforts conducted at higher levels.

3 Alleged Naval Operations and Attack on the Port of Karachi

One item of particular note and controversy concerns reports of alleged Indian naval operations and an attack on the port of Karachi . In the early hours of May 9, numerous Indian media outlets released information relating to an alleged attack by the Indian Navy against the port of Karachi, which occurred during the night between May 8 and 9. Some reports mentioned the use of the aircraft carrier INS Vikrant and Tomahawk and BrahMos cruise missiles.

The official Pakistani reaction was initially one of clear denial. The official X (formerly Twitter) account of the Karachi Port Trust (KPT), @official_kpt , called the reports "completely false and baseless", assuring that the port was operating normally. The same account was hacked and sent contradictory news, demonstrating how a confusing information war is fought between the parties.

4 Information warfare and total chaos

To further complicate the picture, several newspapers and fact-checking organizations have denounced the circulation of disinformation. Outlook India, for example, traced viral images of an alleged attack on the port of Karachi to photographs from Gaza dating back to 2020, while India's Press Information Bureau (PIB) debunked other fake news reports, including an alleged attack on the port of Hazira in Gujarat.

India's Ministry of Information and Broadcasting also accused Express News (Pakistan) of broadcasting "dramatic segments alleging Indian missile attacks on the port of Karachi", attributing Pakistan's ISPR DG for using terms such as "inevitable clash" in relation to Karachi, but without providing verified evidence.

The contradictory management of information by an official entity such as the KPT, combined with the rapid propagation of fake news and cross-allegations, suggests the presence of typical elements of hybrid warfare. The objective could be to generate confusion, uncertainty and, possibly, test adversary and international reactions.

A confirmed attack on a critical economic infrastructure such as the port of Karachi, which handles a major share of Pakistan's maritime trade, would represent a very serious qualitative escalation of the conflict.

The economic implications for Pakistan, already in a precarious financial situation, and for regional stability would be profound. This is why the news regarding that airport is particularly important: it could undermine the solidity of the Pakistani internal front, hence the desired information chaos. After all, no neutral journalist takes the trouble, and the risk, of going there in person.

Meanwhile, this war is producing real deaths and injuries, among soldiers and civilians, on both sides of the border, the number of which is difficult to estimate due to the absence of credible independent sources.

The exit doesn't seem close

Reading the Indian and Pakistani media we are far from achieving a reduction in the conflict. There is talk of not interrupting actions until the adversary is reduced to the impossibility of doing harm, but the destruction or significant reduction of the adversary is not an achievable objective in the short term, indeed perhaps not even in the long term.

There is no will to negotiate and calls for peace, for now, are falling on deaf ears.

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The article India-Pakistan conflict: the escalation does not stop, on the contrary the areas of conflict are expanding comes from Economic Scenarios .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/conflitto-india-pakistan-non-si-arresta-lescalation-anzi-si-ampliano-le-aree-di-conflitto/ on Fri, 09 May 2025 11:00:10 +0000.