Is Toyota’s bet on hydrogen failing?
In 2014, then-Toyota president Akio Toyoda heralded the Mirai, his hydrogen car, as a “game changer” for the auto industry. A decade and just 27,500 hydrogen car sales later, the future is less clear. “I can't say for sure that the future of hydrogen is bright,” admits Hiroki Nakajima, Toyota CTO. A dead end?
Despite the slow rollout, and while other major automakers have widely embraced electric vehicles, Toyota says hydrogen will play a critical role in decarbonizing transportation. “If we give up this technology, we risk giving up the future,” says Nakajima.
The company is focusing on hydrogen-powered trucks, buses and vans. It has unveiled a prototype hydrogen-electric hybrid van and is working with Isuzu Motors on a hydrogen fuel cell truck . Agreements are also underway to supply hydrogen buses to Tokyo, Strasbourg and Madrid. Maybe the hydrogen car needs more time, but the applications can be elsewhere…
Isuzu Toyota hydrogen commercial vehicle
Hydrogen, not for cars
Hydrogen's success in cars has been limited, as Macquarie Capital's James Hong noted. The real test is commercial vehicle and energy storage applications.
Hydrogen fuel cells offer zero emissions, rapid refueling and greater range for heavy-duty vehicles. However, the hydrogen ecosystem is still nascent, with few large-scale production projects and high costs. A hydrogen version of the Toyota Crown costs significantly more than its hybrid counterpart. Meanwhile, electric vehicle prices have fallen thanks to competition and advances in battery technology.
Toyota Crown fuel cell
Toyota is pushing for hydrogen adoption through its subsidiary Hino Motors, which merged with Mitsubishi Fuso to focus on hydrogen. However, the agreement is being delayed. The company is also forming alliances with Hyundai and BMW, both invested in hydrogen, to share development costs.
According to Anne-Sophie Corbeau of the Center of Global Energy Policy, the profitability of hydrogen for trucks and buses is still uncertain and electric solutions are gaining an annual lead. Professor Lee Ho-geun of Daeduk University highlights the losses Hyundai suffers from its hydrogen-powered Nexo SUV, despite subsidies. However, proprietary technologies developed for hydrogen vehicles offer a potential long-term advantage.
The lack of refueling infrastructure is a major obstacle. Shell's closure of hydrogen refueling stations in California has led to a class action lawsuit by Mirai owners. T he failure of hydrogen cars has impacted not only Toyota and Hyundai, but also Japan and Korea, which have tied their decarbonization strategies to hydrogen.
Toyota highlights the need for a coordinated rollout of hydrogen products and infrastructure, likening it to the “relationship between honey and a bee.” Despite the setbacks, Toyota has not abandoned hydrogen for passenger cars. Toyoda's discussions with Hyundai suggest an ongoing commitment to developing fuel cell vehicles.
Insiders draw a parallel with the slow initial diffusion of hybrids like the Prius, underlining Toyota's willingness to make long-term bets. “It's big enough to support multiple bets, even those that have a low probability of success,” says Hong.
So Toyota will not abandon the hydrogen car, but will take it very slowly, developing it in parallel with heavy commercial vehicles and fuel cells in generation systems. In the meantime, it will help develop a hydrogen refueling network, because cars and trucks are not sold if they cannot fill up.
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The article Is Toyota's bet on hydrogen failing? comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-scommessa-di-toyota-sullidrogeno-sta-fallendo/ on Fri, 10 Jan 2025 20:37:46 +0000.