Johnson wins the first battle over the “illegal” law. Europe will have to fold

Prime Minister Boris Johnson effectively set Britain on the path to an "Australian-style" trade deal with the EU after his "Intermarket Bill", which was harshly attacked by the Union and even a minority of British conservatives .

The move opened the door to a messy exit from the EU for Britain, while also increasing the possibility that a physical border could revert to separate Northern Ireland from the Republic of Ireland (an EU member state). Many fear it could lead to a resurgence of sectarian violence in a return to "trouble".

At this point the EU could really abandon the talks, which were blocked in any case, with London, and thus pave the way for the famous Hard Brexit and a no-deal exit that puts all trade rules in the hands of the rules of the WTO, which, however , provide for very low duties, of the order of 7% maximum. taxes that would, however, be applied to the Union's enormous trade surplus.
The rule was passed by a very large majority, indicating that Boris Johnson's position is still very strong in Parliament. The blond is not Theresa May, to understand.

A team of analysts at Goldman FX said in a note to clients that the market is currently pricing in a 40-45% probability of the “no deal” Brexit outcome. In reality, traders expect that there is an agreement anyway, perhaps after a sharp quarrel between the two parties. After all, as we said, Johnson is not May, and in the end it is enough for him to wait. Indeed, while volatility is high but the pound is falling, the funds are taking a long position on the pound:

So there are two cases, for institutional investors:
a) an agreement will be reached shortly;
b) Brexit, even the Hard one, will be a success for the United Kingdom …

and then there will be trouble for Europe.

The Union's reaction has been furious, at least, but now, with Barnier's ability to exclude British goods from Northern Ireland, there are few weapons left to force Johnson to bow to unwanted deals. Yesterday's vote shows that the will of a united people, expressed in a strong parliament, can achieve any result. This is why in Europe, and also in Italy, Democracy is viewed with contempt.

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The Johnson article wins the first battle over the "illegal" law. Europe will have to fold comes from .

This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL on Tue, 15 Sep 2020 07:00:20 +0000.