Moscow’s long-term oil plan: stability until 2050

Under Moscow's new energy plan, Russian crude oil production and exports will remain stable until 2050 , and output is expected to stand at about 540 million tons by the end of this decade, due to U.S. and European Union sanctions, Bloomberg reported Monday.

In 2023, Russia produced 531 million tons. In terms of exports, Russia's new energy plan foresees stable exports until 2050, amounting to around 235 million tonnes per year.

While oil production is projected to experience zero growth between now and mid-century, Russian natural gas production is expected to increase to 853 billion cubic meters by the end of this decade and to more than a trillion cubic meters by 2050.

According to Reuters, despite setbacks in pipeline gas exports to Europe due to sanctions, Moscow plans to increase gas exports, including both liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline supplies, from 146 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023 to 293 bcm in 2030, potentially reaching 438 bcm by 2050.

LNG exports are expected to increase from 45 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 142 billion cubic meters in 2030 and 241 billion cubic meters by 2050, although current US sanctions have hindered shipments from the new Arctic LNG-2 project.

Russian oil well in production

Russia's new energy plan appears to contradict statements made by Moscow as early as September 2024 , when the country's deputy energy minister, Pavel Sorokin, said that Russia expected significant growth in global oil demand until 2050 and was ready to meet that growing demand. At the time, Sorokin also stressed that Russia will not saturate the market unless necessary. The Ministry of Energy projects that global oil demand will grow by at least 5-7 million barrels per day, increasing by 4.5-5.5% through 2030 and continuing growth of at least 5% by 2050.

Things have changed since then , exponentially, with OPEC on Monday lowering its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 due to the trade war and related economic growth forecasts. OPEC now forecasts a demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025, down 150,000 bpd from its previous projection. Similarly, the forecast for 2026 was revised downward to 1.28 million bpd.

The article Moscow's long-term oil plan: stability until 2050 comes from Economic Scenarios .

This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-piano-di-mosca-per-il-petrolio-a-lungo-termine-stabilita-sino-al-2050/ on Tue, 15 Apr 2025 08:00:07 +0000.