Oil at $ 100 in 2022 and $ 105 in 2023: too much demand
Oil prices could reach $ 100 this year and rise to $ 105 a barrel in 2023, in the wake of a "surprisingly large deficit" in the oil market now, Goldman Sachs says .
"Importantly, we do not expect Brent to trade above $ 100 / bbl for a supposed oil depletion as shale resources are still large and elastic," Goldman Sachs strategists, including Damien Courvalin, wrote. and Jeff Currie, in a note to customers dated Monday, as brought by ZeroHedge.
Due to oil-gas substitution, supply disappointments, and stronger-than-expected demand in the fourth quarter of 2021, OECD inventories are expected to drop by summer to their lowest levels since 2000, analysts at Goldman note. Furthermore, OPEC + spare capacity is also expected to drop to historically low levels of around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
“At $ 85 a barrel, the market would remain at such critical levels, buffer insufficient with respect to supply and demand volatility, until 2023,” Goldman Sachs said.
As a result of these fundamentals, the bank's spot Brent forecast is $ 105 in 2023 and $ 96 a barrel in 2022.
Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude prices at $ 90 per barrel this quarter, $ 95 per barrel in the second quarter and $ 100 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Figures that have not been seen for years, and all without unexpected events such as, for example, the attacks by the Houthis against oil plants in the Arab Emirates. It is also to be hoped that things will remain calm.
Brent crude prices hit their highest level since October 2014 on Tuesday, trading above $ 87.90 at some point earlier in the day as the geopolitical risk premium rose with the Houthi attacks on the UAE. United and the Russia-Ukraine issue, all of this amidst a tight physical market for crude oil.
Last month, Goldman Sachs predicted oil prices could reach $ 100 in 2023 as demand growth outstrips supply.
Earlier this month, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said commodities as a whole were set for a super cycle that could potentially last a decade. Goldman's commodity manager is also very bullish on oil due to low investments in the sector and the fact that only two oil producers in the world, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, currently have the capacity and means to pump more oil than how much they did in January 2020, just before COVID. Everyone else is struggling, Currie said.
"This market has the potential to get very tight over the next three to six months," he told Bloomberg Television in an interview earlier this month.
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The article Oil at $ 100 in 2022 and $ 105 in 2023: too much demand comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/petrolio-a-100-dollari-nel-2022-e-a-105-nel-2023-troppa-domanda/ on Wed, 19 Jan 2022 07:00:05 +0000.