OPEC+ “opens the taps” (but oil remains in the Gulf). The Emirates’ farewell and the Hormuz paradox.
The paradox of energy markets unfolds via video conference. The seven main OPEC+ producers have announced a " voluntary upward adjustment" : an additional 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in June 2026. An attempt, they say, to ensure market stability. Unfortunately, with a barrel of Brent crude hovering around $110 (physical prices are around $150) and the Strait of Hormuz blocked, this production increase looks a lot like a theoretical exercise. The crude is available, quotas are rising, but the oil cannot physically reach our shores.
The “paper quotas” and Abu Dhabi's move
The announced increase, which complements the 206,000 bpd already granted in April, comes against a relentless logistical reality. Around 20% of global crude oil historically passes through the Strait of Hormuz. With the current blockade, OPEC countries' cumulative production has already plummeted (as much as -27.5% in March). Announcing quota increases in this context is almost ironic: you produce what you can't export.
But the real news, the one destined to change the very structure of the energy market in the long term, is something else: the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC and OPEC+. After 60 years, Abu Dhabi has decided to go it alone, marking a historic break in the cartel.
- The Emirates' goal: To increase production from the current 3.4 million to around 5 million barrels per day by 2027.
- The reason: The Emirati economy is increasingly diversified and less dependent on crude oil, allowing the country to focus on volumes rather than artificially defending prices, freeing itself from the constraints imposed until now by Riyadh.
Macroeconomic implications: a "taximeter" on aggregate demand
From a macroeconomic perspective, the current situation is a textbook example of supply shocks. Oil prices consistently above $100-115 instantly translate into a regressive tax on consumers in industrialized countries.
Rising costs of refined products (such as kerosene) impact logistics and, in turn, consumer prices. This risks triggering a new wave of inflation, forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates. The net result? A destruction of aggregate demand. If real incomes are eroded by energy costs, domestic consumption collapses, driving the system straight into stagflation.
| Variable | Pre-Lockdown Scenario | Current Scenario (Goldman Sachs Estimates) |
| Brent price | ~$80 – $90 | $105 – $115 |
| Global Balance Sheet | Surplus of 1.8 million bpd | Deficit of 9.6 mln bpd (by mid-2026) |
What will happen when the Strait reopens?
There is, however, a fundamental issue to note for the future, and markets would do well to price it in now. If it weren't for the closure of Hormuz, we would be literally drowning in oil today.
The United Arab Emirates' exit and its intention to release over 1.5 million additional barrels per day, combined with Saudi Arabia's spare capacity, creates a potentially gigantic oversupply . The US administration is confident of a price collapse once the geopolitical situation stabilizes, and long-term fundamentals seem to support this. When the Hormuz plug pops, the shock wave from Emirati supply (no longer subject to OPEC quotas) could abruptly invert the price curve, moving from shortage to abundance in a matter of months.
The article "OPEC+ "opens the taps" (but oil remains in the Gulf). The Emirates' farewell and the Hormuz paradox" comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/lopec-apre-i-rubinetti-ma-il-petrolio-resta-nel-golfo-laddio-degli-emirati-e-il-paradosso-di-hormuz/ on Sun, 03 May 2026 18:11:50 +0000.