Quantum Apocalypse: Experts’ Warning Threatens Bank Accounts and Bitcoin, But the Solution Already Exists
Keith Martin, a professor at the Information Security Group, Royal Holloway University of London, warns of the enormous and unconsidered dangers associated with the rapid development of quantum computers.
Recent news reports have suggested that quantum computers could crack cryptographic codes 20 times easier than previously estimated, threatening the security of wifi, banking, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. But is a crypto apocalypse really imminent?
According to a recent study , cracking the RSA algorithm – one of the pillars of modern cryptography, used in countless applications – could require “only” a quantum computer with 1 million qubits, compared to the 20 million previously estimated. This theoretical advance fuels the debate: do quantum computers pose a real threat to our digital security?
The Current Limitations of Quantum Computers
Quantum computers exist today, but their capabilities are extremely limited . There is no single model of a quantum computer: several approaches are in development, but all face enormous technological obstacles. The most advanced quantum computers have just over 1,000 qubits, which are still highly unstable and error-prone. Despite huge investments, it is unclear when – or if – they will be able to crack cryptographic codes on a large scale.
The impact on encryption
Not all cryptography is equally vulnerable. Symmetric cryptography, which protects most of our data (such as data transmitted over secure networks), can be easily hardened against quantum computers. More at risk is public-key cryptography, which is used for secure online connections (such as online shopping or messaging) and is based on algorithms such as RSA or elliptic curve Diffie-Hellman. Digital signatures, such as those used in Bitcoin transactions, could also be compromised.
However, theoretical attacks that could exploit quantum computers to break these systems are still hypothetical and would require machines much more powerful than those currently available. Furthermore, it is unclear when such machines will be available: estimates vary from 10-20 years to the indefinite future, with some experts even doubting their feasibility.
A cautious approach
From a security perspective, it is wise to adopt a “worst case scenario” mindset. Even if a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (capable of breaking codes) were available in 20 years, some data protected today may need to remain secure for decades. Furthermore, upgrading cryptosystems, especially in complex networks like financial ones, takes time. Therefore, acting now is essential to avoid future damage.
Solutions already under study
Fortunately, work to counter this threat has already begun. In 2016, the U.S. National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST ) launched an international competition to develop new post-quantum cryptographic tools, believed to be resistant to quantum computers.
In 2024, NIST published the first standards , which include post-quantum digital signature and key exchange mechanisms. To prepare, digital systems will need to replace public-key cryptography with these new standards and ensure that symmetric keys are long enough. Many current systems are already compatible with stronger keys.
So there’s no reason to panic. The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) has suggested a roadmap for organisations, especially those operating critical infrastructure. By 2028, a cryptographic inventory should be completed and a post-quantum migration plan should be in place, with systems upgrades to be completed by 2035. This 10-year timeframe means experts aren’t predicting a cryptographic apocalypse is imminent.
For the public, the adjustment will be gradual . Web browsers, wifi, smartphones, and messaging apps will be updated with post-quantum security measures over time, either through software updates or device replacements. It is important, as always, to install security updates, and this will be a lengthy process, but relatively simple if planned well in advance.
So calm down in the face of sensational headlines: the quantum computer capable of breaking the most common codes is still a long way off, but sooner or later it will arrive, and, at that point, it will be better to be ready.
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The article Quantum Apocalypse: Experts' warning threatens bank accounts and Bitcoin, but the solution already exists. comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/allarme-computer-quantistico-sicurezza-banche-bitcoin/ on Sat, 07 Jun 2025 20:48:23 +0000.