Sharp slowdown in Russian oil exports after the price cap
Russian crude oil exports took a hit after new sanctions and price caps came into effect earlier in the week. The Wall Street Journal reports that data from two data providers on Russian crude both show sharp declines, albeit by different magnitudes.
Russia's seaborne exports fell by nearly 500,000 bpd on Tuesday, a 16% drop from November's average of 3.08 million bpd, according to commodity analyst firm Kpler.
Meanwhile, TankerTrackers.com, which tracks vessels by sea using satellite signals and imagery, reported that Russia's crude exports are down nearly 50%. Shipments from Black Sea and Baltic ports accounted for most of the decline.
According to Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, this is a notable decline rather than a setback: “Russian exports have moved steadily so far. The two biggest bottlenecks visible are in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea. The Pacific and Arctic regions remain unaffected, at least for now."
StanChart analysts have predicted that Russian crude oil production is set to drop sharply in the coming year, noting that the main unknown is whether Russia is able to transport the oil to its major consumers (and also provide adequate insurance). without resorting to the services of the EU or other G7.
According to StanChart, after the invasion of Ukraine Russia acquired a fleet of "shadow" tankers large enough to be used to move most of the volumes moved; however, analysts note that the insurance aspect could cause significant problems. This situation leads analysts to predict that Russian crude oil production could decline by 1.44 million barrels per day in 2023, due to the growing shortage of high-quality equipment and lack of access to international service companies.
At the same time, we are seeing a gridlock of more than a dozen tankers stranded in the Turkish Straits due to a dispute between marine insurers and local authorities due to the new sanctions and price cap.
Thanks to our Telegram channel you can stay updated on the publication of new articles from Economic Scenarios.
The article Sharp slowdown in Russian oil exports after the price cap comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/secco-rallentamento-dellexport-di-petrolio-russo-dopo-il-price-cap/ on Thu, 08 Dec 2022 08:00:03 +0000.