Silver at $80 and up 160% in a year: the market is screaming something (and Peru has the keys to the safe)
While the mainstream media focused on the usual reassuring narratives, a silent but devastating earthquake unfolded in the commodity markets for those betting on the perpetual stability of paper money. Silver, gold's "poor cousin," ceased to be poor. In December, futures touched $80 , closing a record-breaking 2025 with a monstrous 160% gain.
A rally that even outperformed gold, driven by an explosive mix: chronic geopolitical uncertainty and an increasingly weak dollar, victim of monetary policies that have flooded the world with worthless liquidity. But if the price tells us its value, it's the geography of reserves that tells us who's really in charge. And here, surprises abound.
The map of power: Peru dominates, Mexico "empties"
According to the most recent data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) , global silver reserves amount to approximately 641,400 tons. But how are they distributed? Certainly not democratically. Here's an infographic showing the top five countries in the world by silver production:
Peru stands as an undisputed giant, sitting atop a mountain of 140,000 tons of reserves, equivalent to 22% of the global total . A strategic position that, in a world fragmenting into trading blocs, is worth more than a thousand diplomatic treaties. Lima holds the upper hand, or rather, the pickaxe.
Behind the Andean giant, we find a trio that makes us reflect on the geopolitical balance:
- Australia
- Russia
- China
These three countries each hold between 70,000 and 94,000 tons. Together, they control approximately 40% of global reserves . If we add the reserves of Russia and China to those of the BRICS countries or their sympathizers, we immediately realize that the West risks being left holding the baby (and without the silver to quench it). Overall, this table shows the top 10 producers with their respective production percentages.
| Position | Village | Reserves (metric tons) | % of World Total |
| 1 | Peru | 140,000 | 21.9% |
| 2 | Australia | 94,000 | 14.7% |
| 3 | Russia | 92,000 | 14.4% |
| 4 | China | 70,000 | 10.9% |
| 5 | Poland | 61,000 | 9.5% |
| 6 | Mexico | 37,000 | 5.8% |
| 7 | Chile | 26,000 | 4.1% |
| 8 | United States | 23,000 | 3.6% |
| 9 | Bolivia | 22,000 | 3.4% |
| 10 | India | 8,000 | 1.3% |
| 11 | Argentina | 6,500 | 1.0% |
| 12 | Canada | 4,900 | 0.8% |
| – | Other countries | 57,000 | 8.9% |
| – | World Total | 641,400 | 100.0% |
A prime example of strategic shortsightedness is Mexico . It's the world's leading producer, mining silver at a frenetic pace to meet the market, yet holds only 37,000 tons of reserves (6% of global reserves). Mexico City is literally emptying its coffers without any major new reserve projects underway. This intensive mining model maximizes profits today to ensure scarcity tomorrow. Does it make long-term economic sense? Probably not.
The “Green Transition” Trap
But why this rush to silver? It's not just monetary speculation. The much-vaunted "green transition" is at play. Silver is crucial for photovoltaic technology and electric vehicles. Demand from the solar sector alone has risen from less than 50 million ounces (Moz) ten years ago to a projected 160 Moz in 2023, and continues to rise.
Here lies the paradox: Western policies are forcing a rapid transition to electric power, creating inelastic demand for physical metals. But if supply is concentrated in hands that aren't always "friendly" or are running out (as in Mexico), the result is a foregone conclusion: cost-push inflation. The skyrocketing price of silver is the red light on the global economy's dashboard: it's telling us that physical scarcity has once again become more important than creative finance. And guess who will foot the bill for this "green inflation"? The end consumer, of course.
Questions and Answers
Why did the price of silver rise so much more than gold in 2025?
Silver has a dual nature: it is a monetary safe haven like gold, but it is also an indispensable industrial metal. The 160% surge reflects the "perfect storm": the flight from the dollar due to geopolitical uncertainty combined with the explosion in physical industrial demand for solar panels and electronics, creating a scarcity that gold, a purely financial asset, has not experienced with the same intensity.
What is the difference between production and reserves, and why is Mexico's case concerning?
Production indicates how much metal is being mined today, while reserves indicate how much remains in the ground that can be economically extracted. Mexico produces a lot today but has few reserves (only 6% of global totals). This means it is rapidly depleting its reserves. Without new discoveries, its production leadership will collapse, reducing global supply just as demand is increasing, pushing prices even higher.
How does this increase impact the ecological transition in Europe?
The impact is direct and inflationary. Europe imports almost all the silver it consumes. If the price of the raw material triples, the cost of producing photovoltaic panels, electric cars, and electronic components skyrockets. This makes the "green transition" much more expensive than expected for citizens and businesses, threatening to slow it down or make it economically unsustainable without massive government subsidies.
The article Silver at $80 and +160% in a year: the market is screaming something (and Peru has the keys to the safe) comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/argento-a-80-dollari-e-160-in-un-anno-il-mercato-sta-urlando-qualcosa-e-il-peru-ha-le-chiavi-della-cassaforte/ on Sat, 10 Jan 2026 13:24:35 +0000.