Sweden: where Covid-19 has defeated mathematical models

Mathematical models should study real data and then use them to make predictions about future developments which, however, would be based on past events or on different situations. A little humility would dictate not to use the models as if they were the Bible, because they are not. For example, in Sweden, a Nordic country that has imposed very soft and limited lockdown rules and is currently only in 18th place for vaccinations, it has defeated a few mathematical models that, in the past, have predicted apocalyptic disasters.

Let's take a few practical examples: one model predicted an astounding average of 96,000 deaths, with a minimum value of 52,000 and a maximum of 183,000. At the Swedish University of Lund an academic used the parameters of the now infamous Neil Ferguson / Imperial College model resulting in 85,000 deaths. A team from the University of Uppsala has calculated a terrible human price with 40,000 deaths from Covid-19 by May 1, 2020 and nearly 100,000 by June.

Total deaths from Swedish Covid at the time of writing: 14,657. No model has even come close to the result. They almost look like the economic models used by the Commission!

What did Sweden actually do?

The medical journal Lancet strongly criticized the Swedish government's approach: “Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Public Health Agency. . . has taken a de facto herd immunity approach, allowing for community transmission in a relatively uncontrolled way ",

"No mandatory measures have been taken to limit crowds on public transport, in shopping malls or other crowded places", "Coronavirus testing, contact tracing, source identification and reporting, as recommended by WHO , were limited and remain inadequate ”. High schools have closed temporarily, but elementary schools never. "In our opinion," said The Lancet, "there is not yet sufficient recognition in the national strategy of the importance of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, aerosol transmission and the use of masks."

In Sweden, vaccinations, present and pursued by the government, were not the cause of the end of the peak of infections, which reached its peak in early January, while vaccinations did not begin until the end of the month. Sweden currently ranks 18th in Europe in vaccines per capita, right in the middle. Likewise, there are those who say that Sweden eventually folded and imposed severe restrictions. It was not so. It imposed more restrictions in the second week of January, perhaps more in response to international pressure than out of conviction, but the peak had already passed.

What is happening? According to a study not yet academically reviewed, but already online, by two Svenske researchers, it appears that the country has reached that Holy Grail of Covid called “herd immunity”. This means a level where those who are already protected are significantly protecting those without exposure. This would represent a bit of a scientific mystery, given the low number of cases, and could be explained, perhaps, by an immunity obtained to another similar virus. However, the data on the decline in cases are there and show a trend that challenges statisticians, mathematicians and lovers of lockdown.

Mind you, the current figures are just a snapshot. Has the country paid a terrible price to achieve apparent herd immunity?

Well, certainly Sweden's death rate is higher than its Nordic neighbors Norway, Denmark and Finland, but it's well below the rates for the most populous European countries including Belgium, Italy, the UK, Romania, Spain, France and Portugal. The United States too.

Swedish chief epidemiologist A nders Tegnell , who was heavily criticized last year, has his own little revenge:

"Closing means saving time," he said last year. "It's not solving anything." In essence, the country "prepaid" its deaths and decreased them later.

In the end, Sweden represents an interesting mystery that our scientists have refrained from studying thoroughly, clinging to the claim that the experiment would have failed and that it is a unique and different reality. In reality there would be several points to analyze in depth, if only to study alternative strategies and scenarios. Unfortunately, the televised sermon is the simplest way.

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The article Sweden: where Covid-19 has defeated mathematical models comes from ScenariEconomici.it .

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This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-svezia-dove-il-covid-19-ha-sconfitto-i-modelli-matematici/ on Wed, 04 Aug 2021 10:58:55 +0000.