The government’s Napoleonic bulletins hide the sad reality of the facts
The title takes up a saying that existed in the France of the Emperor Napoleon, when the bulletins on the exploits of the army were so exaggerated as to give rise to the saying "False as a bulletin". The titles of the previous rounds tell us of an "Incredible" and "Exceptional" economic growth in the third quarter, equal to 2.6% against 2.2%, which would have led to annual growth, even if the fourth quarter were equal to zero, 6.1%, with the so-called “Acquired Growth”, the one in theory no longer erasable.
Will it really be like this? The Giuseppe Liturri of StartMag, Paride Lupo of CanaleSovranista and logic help us to understand this. First of all, there is never anything acquired, in general. 2020, like 2008 and 2012-13, show us how what seems to have been acquired in one moment can disappear into depression the following year. So the real numbers. A useful graph from Canale Sovranista shows how growth is so strong that it took us back to 2001….
We are back to the 2o01 GDP, at real values and seasonally adjusted. Would this be the exceptional growth achieved by the government?
Even more clear Liturri: even if the growth was "Exceptional", however, at present, we would have a growth that brings us back to 3.4% less than in 2019. Even if the fourth quarter of 2021 were as good as the third, which is anything but easy to achieve, we would still be below 3.1% compared to 2019. Then 2019 was the result of asphyxiated growth following the euro public debt crisis, so it was already the son of a structural crisis.
In the end, the “Exceptional growth” is only a half rebound, which cannot even bring us back on the path of previous stagnation. Unfortunately, recognizing this fact, perhaps looking for its root causes, to suggest its cure is outside our media. But the misery that torments us, and that will torment us even more in the future, when the increase in energy prices and raw materials will make itself felt more and more.
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The article The Napoleonic government bulletins hide the sad reality of the facts comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/i-bollettini-napoleonici-del-governo-nascondono-la-trista-realta-dei-fatti/ on Sun, 31 Oct 2021 10:10:48 +0000.