The huge cost of the lockdown. Someone figured it out in the US
Often, when it comes to lockdowns, the overall costs, in all sectors, of these measures are not calculated. The excuse is that, however, it is a question of saving lives, certainly a worthwhile activity, but what if in the end many more were sacrificed?
This calculation seems impossible to do in Italy where such an assessment would politically involve a government whose only possible response was precisely to close. Yet, as we know, much more could have been done. But in the USA the Association for Economic Research has taken this grain and done the math, for their country and, in general, for the world. I invite you to read the data with great attention, all provided from source, and to evaluate how many deaths and what economic costs were caused not by Covid-19, but by the lockdown for Covid-19.
Mental health
At the end of June 2020, 40% of US adults reported having mental health or substance abuse problems. CDC (June 2020) USA
10.7% of the adults surveyed thought about suicide, up from 4.3% in 2018. CDC (August 2020) USA
The reported anxiety symptoms were three times higher than those of the second quarter of 2019 and the reported depression symptoms were four times higher than those of the second quarter of 2019. CDC (August 2020) USA
Of individuals aged 18 to 24, 25.5% are considered suicide . CDC (August 2020) USA
In New York alone, Google searches have increased for phrases and words: anxiety, panic attacks and insomnia. JAMA (October 2020) New York
Between April and October, the share of emergency visits related to children's mental health (age 5-11) increased by 24% and by 31% for 12-17 year olds compared to 2019. CDC (November 2020) USA
At the end of June, 13% of respondents said they had started or increased the use of psychoactive substances to cope with the pandemic . CDC (August 2020) USA
More than 40 states have reported increased mortality from opioids. AMA (October 2020) USA
From January 2020 to March 2020, 19,416 people died from overdoses, or 3,000 more than in 2019 for the same quarter. CDC (2020) USA
Economy
In March alone, food banks distributed 20 percent more food than in an average month. Feeding America (July 2020) United States
This year, between 71 and 100 million people will fall into extreme poverty . The World Bank (June 2020) Around the world
About 86 million children could fall into poverty. UNICEF and Save the Children ( May 2020 ) around the world
The food insecurity rate from 2018 to mid-2020 more than doubled (from 14% to 32%) for families with children. Brookings (September 2020) USA
The number of undernourished individuals can increase from 690 to 822 million people. WHO (October 2020) around the world
In the second quarter of 2020, GDP decreased at an annual rate of 32.9%, and in the first quarter of 2020, GDP decreased at an annual rate of 5%. BEA (July 2020) USA
Unemployment
The unemployment rate rose to 14.7% in April 2020. This is the highest rate of increase (10.3%) and the largest monthly increase in the history of available data (since 1948). BLS (May 2020) USA
In March, 39% of people living with a family income of $ 40,000 or less said they had lost their jobs. Federal Reserve (April 2020) United States
The unemployment rate between February and April increased by 12% for women and 10% for men. US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mothers of children aged 12 and over lost 2.2 million jobs between February and August (12% decline), while fathers of young children lost 870,000 jobs (4% decline). Stateline (August 2020) United States
One in four women who were interviewed reported that job loss was due to a lack of childcare – twice as many as the men surveyed. Washington Post (July 2020) USA
Education
About 24 million children could drop out of school next year due to the economic impact of the closure. UN (October 2020) Worldwide
There is a decrease in life expectancy of 5.53 million years of life for American children due to the closure of US elementary schools. JAMA (November 2020) USA
30,806 internships were lost (-52%) between 9 March and 13 April. Glassdoor (April 2020) USA
Between March 9 and April 13, travel and tourism internships decreased by 92%; IT fell 76%, architecture and engineering by 65% and telecommunications by 65%. Accounting and legal internships fell as little as possible, with a drop of 22%. Glassdoor (April 2020) USA
Health care
At the 10-week isolation threshold, 2.1 million people in the UK were awaiting screening for breast, cervical or bowel cancer. Cancer Research in the United Kingdom ( June 2020) United Kingdom
Diagnosis for 6 cancers (breast, colorectal, lung, pancreatic, gastric and esophageal) decreased by 46.4% compared to 2018. JAMA research letter (August 2020) USA
Pancreatic cancer diagnosis fell 24.7% from 2018. JAMA research letter (August 2020) USA
Breast cancer diagnosis fell 51.8% from 2018. JAMA research letter (August 2020) USA
"The Netherlands cancer registry has seen a 40% drop in the weekly cancer incidence ." JAMA Research Letter (Aug 2020) Netherlands
Pre-Covid, Medical University of South Carolina went from 20 daily stroke calls (or 550 per month) to about nine in mid-April. Washington Post (April 2020) USA
The (suspected) postponements of cancer treatment in the UK have dropped by 75% since the Covid-19 restrictions were implemented. JAMA Research Letter (Aug 2020) UK
38% decrease in treatments for heart attacks and acute circulatory syndromes in nine hospitals in the US. JACC
In Italy, cardiological diagnostic procedures decreased by 56%, PCI 48%, structural interventions by 81% and PCI in STEMI by 40%. Cardiol. (2020) Italy
Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the United States; premature cardiovascular disease and stroke mortality cost $ 137.5 billion in terms of future productivity loss. AHA (2020) USA
Hospitalizations for chemotherapy fell by 45-66%, while urgent referrals for early cancer detection fell by 70-89%. Lai et al. (2020) United Kingdom
During the month of April the weekly emergency visits (ED) decreased by 42% compared to the average of the previous year of 2.1 million to 1.2 million. CDC (October 2020) USA
In 2018, patients who go to the emergency room for an opioid overdose were 100 times more likely to die from an overdose in the year following discharge. The probability of dying from suicide is 18 times greater than the general population. NIMH (May 2020) USA
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The article The huge cost of the Lockdown. Someone has calculated it, in the US it comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/il-costo-enorme-del-lockdown-qualcuno-lo-ha-calcolato-negli-usa/ on Sat, 21 Nov 2020 15:47:00 +0000.