A general, muffled silence covers the progressive march towards war between Ukraine, Dombass and Russia. On the one hand we have the progressive mobilization of the Ukrainian forces. Since 5 April, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have continued the activities of deploying more troops on the demarcation line. Russia is also transferring forces to the Ukrainian border and to the Crimea. In total, 7 different violations of the ceasefire have been recorded in the past 24 hours, each involving a high number of shots and bullets. Two UAF soldiers were killed.
Meanwhile, the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported that its militia had thwarted an attempt by a Ukrainian sabotage group to conduct reconnaissance near the Republic's borders in the area of Shumy village near Horlivka. The incidents of Ukrainian soldiers continue to blow up on mines placed by their own comrades, but not recorded on the maps.
Russia, for its part, is making further deployments, as the footage showed Nona-S self-propelled howitzers delivered to the potential front line. It is also deploying units of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, commonly known as Pskov Paratroopers. in total there is talk of about twenty thousand men deployed at the Ukrainian red borders, to which, however, are added many other units ready to move and intervene.
The Ukrainian armed forces are 25% of the Russian ones , not to mention the lack of strategic components. The confrontation started on Kiev's hopes or expectations of aid from NATO. How ready is the alliance to help Kiev directly? Washington has also sent sophisticated weapons: UAVs, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank missiles, electronic warfare systems. All things that are useful, but cannot counterbalance Moscow's excessive war power. He will also send advisors, but are we ready to send real "Troops in the field"? Many think not and that in the end Washington will be content to mediate, and Kiev to ask for help. On the contrary, the Russians have affirmed that the eventual accession of Ukraine to NATO "would not remain without consequences", and the Russian tradition is that of not making empty threats.
Meanwhile, we are at the stage that always precedes real wars: the logistical one. The clock for direct confrontation is ticking.
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/la-silenziosa-marcia-verso-la-guerra-nelleuropa-orientale/ on Thu, 08 Apr 2021 06:00:15 +0000.