Ukrainian conflict: it’s a matter of time
After four days of conflict, direct negotiations should begin soon between a Ukrainian and a Russian delegation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border to the north. Ukrainians believe that Belarus is a belligerent country, therefore not suitable for hosting the talks, so there was a concession to a meeting halfway, near the Pripyat River. I imagine a scene that includes a bridge or something similar.
Well, it is to be hoped that an agreement will be found but it is not particularly safe. The reasons are different:
- dealing with an occupying force in a country is no ordinary thing to restore peace.
- however the real negotiations will have to take place in neutral territory. Azerbaijan seems the most likely area at the moment because it is not a direct member of NATO, even though Zelensky pointed to Warsaw.
- It is not certain that a truce dealt with now will turn out to be only a truce.
Because the interests are still too divergent. At this moment Putin must close, also because his military body must have assured him that the operations would be concluded in a few days. Proof? The closure of airports in southern Russia (over a dozen and not secondary, such as Soci or Volgograd) is expected to end on March 2. Each subsequent date means a breach of the deadlines set by the Russian machine. At the same time Zelensky is a little less in a hurry, or rather he is in a hurry, but the weather is less unfavorable for him. First of all, the weapons sent by NATO arrive, especially the Stinger missiles and anti-tank weapons. With 500 Singer missiles, if they make it to the front, fly very few low-flying helicopters. The more time passes, the more the quality and quantity of supplies in vehicles and weapons will rise, and more people will be able to escape from the theaters of war. Obviously Zelensky and the Ukrainians have an interest in closing soon, but a little less than Putin. Also because tomorrow morning the banks also open in Russia and it is not clear what will happen now.
To put pressure on, Putin has put the nuclear deterrent forces on high alert. This is an indication of nervousness. Why be so nervous when you are winning so easily and the sanctions will have no effect on Russia (and will not, in the short term)? Among other things, the military threat of NATO was the same two weeks ago, it has not changed one iota due to having redeployed a rapid force of 5,000 men… Evidently there is the fear that tomorrow something will not go to Russia.
Today we will see how the talks are going, with great realism.
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The article Ukrainian conflict: it's a matter of time comes from ScenariEconomici.it .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/conflitto-ucraino-e-una-questione-di-tempo/ on Sun, 27 Feb 2022 15:55:49 +0000.