United Kingdom: isn’t Farage going to win the next elections?
It seems that, just as Keir Starmer goes to the EU summit in an attempt to cancel Brexit and pretend to have rejoined the EU, those who promoted that political movement are leading in the electoral polls in the United Kingdom.
This is already the second case in which the British pollster Find Out has put Nigel Farage 's Reform Party, the promoter of Brexit, at the top of the polls. The data is collected by Britain Elects .
The first poll of January 22nd gave Riform a lead of 3 points. The latest poll dated January 29th shows them ahead by 4 points. He is expected to garner a quarter of the vote. And this is not in disagreement with other pollsters, but it is now a standard fact.
Other pollsters do not give Reform Party an advantage. Instead of 20-23% for Labor or the Conservatives, the current voting range for the two titanic forces of British politics is 22-27%. A big difference, but above all an invitation to review the basis of the polls, because, with this difference, someone is making a serious mistake in their definition. We need to understand who. However, here is a summary image of the polls:
So the Reform Party is definitely ahead in the polls? No, because there is too much variability in the results. Could the Reform Party be in the lead? Absolutely yes . They are within the realm of reasonable probability. We could say it is possible that the Reform Party is in the lead, but it is not probable, or rather the greatest probability, that it actually guides the political preferences of British people.
However, leave Keir Starmer in government for a few more months and we will easily see Reform surpass 30%. The insensitivity of socialist and elitist parties towards the people is becoming a European, if not global, constant
Thanks to our Telegram channel you can stay updated on the publication of new Economic Scenarios articles.
The article United Kingdom: isn't Farage going to win the next elections? comes from Economic Scenarios .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/regno-unito-non-e-che-farage-vincera-le-prossime-elezioni/ on Tue, 04 Feb 2025 09:30:39 +0000.