US-Iran: Istanbul talks fall through. Washington rejects the change in format and deploys military force.
The United States on Wednesday categorically rejected Iran's demands to change the location and format of talks scheduled for this Friday.
A resolute "no" that could block the diplomatic process and convince President Trump to consider far more drastic options, including military ones. The news leaked via Axios .
The crux of the matter: Istanbul or Oman?
The initial agreement seemed to be done: the US and Iran were scheduled to meet on Friday in Istanbul, with other Middle Eastern countries participating as observers. A multilateral format designed to address the regional situation in all its complexity.
However, last Tuesday, the Iranian delegation attempted a surprise move, requesting that the talks be moved to Oman and restricted to a strictly bilateral format. Tehran's goal was clear: to limit the discussion to the nuclear issue alone, leaving uncomfortable topics such as the missile program, a top priority for the United States and its allies in the region, off the table.
Washington's response, after a brief consideration, was peremptory. As a senior US official reported: "We told them that either we do it this way or we do nothing, and they said, 'OK, then nothing.'"
The American position is pragmatic but inflexible:
- If Iran is willing to return to the original format (Istanbul, multilateral), the US is ready to meet this week or next.
- The goal is a real and rapid agreement. Otherwise, as the source emphasized, "other options will be explored," a clear reference to Trump's threats of military action.
Behind the scenes: two dead-end tracks
American officials revealed that the original Istanbul agreement envisioned two parallel tracks:
- Direct US-Iran talks focused on the nuclear deal.
- Multilateral discussions on regional issues, including Iran's missile program, support for proxy groups, and human rights violations.
Iran's refusal has changed the agenda. White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner are expected in Qatar on Thursday for talks with the local prime minister. From there, the current plan calls for a return to Miami, completely skipping the meeting with the Iranians. The intervention of other local officials was necessary to secure guarantors for the agreement outside of Iran.
Skepticism in Washington is palpable. "We're not naive about the Iranians. If there's a real conversation to be had, we'll have it, but we won't waste time," a second US official commented. The perception is that Tehran isn't ready for the change of pace needed for an agreement that isn't a rehash of old, failed patterns.
F-15 Eagle II
The Logic of Force: F-15s and Aircraft Carriers
While diplomacy stalls, the military machine moves forward, and this is what those who follow geopolitical dynamics must carefully observe. It's not just words.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has confirmed the deployment of F-15E Strike Eagle fighters to the Middle East to "enhance combat readiness." This is complemented by the Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group, already present in the area, and the support of the United Kingdom, which has sent Typhoon fighters with defensive capabilities.
Airborne tracking data also shows a significant movement of U.S. military cargo planes toward the region, a move reminiscent of the buildup of air defenses (including Patriot systems) seen last year before Iranian retaliation.
The conflict is far from certain, and, upon closer inspection, it is not in the immediate interests of any of the parties involved. However, with Istanbul's diplomatic channel severed, the parties will need to find an alternative way to reopen dialogue before the logic of war prevails over that of negotiations.
The article US-Iran: Istanbul talks fall through. Washington rejects format change and deploys military force comes from Scenari Economici .
This is a machine translation of a post published on Scenari Economici at the URL https://scenarieconomici.it/usa-iran-saltano-i-colloqui-di-istanbul-washington-rifiuta-il-cambio-di-formato-e-schiera-la-forza-militare/ on Wed, 04 Feb 2026 18:35:40 +0000.