Brexit: the phenomenon of emergence
(… which is different from the emergence of phenomena: that occurs on Twitter and is followed by an inexorable sinking …)
Professor,
I live in the UK and have been following you for years but I can't comment on Goofynomics… I'll tell you here, if you're interested: the increase in AIRE enrollments in the UK is not an indication of an increase in Italians in the UK, but rather a phenomenon of emergence for which Italians who have been in the United Kingdom perhaps for years (five, ten) are now registering late now that they need to use the consular services for passports, driving licenses, documents or notarial deeds.
See here (2019: "350,000 of our compatriots residing here are registered in Aire, the Registry of Italians Residing Abroad, but the Italian Consulate in London calculates that for every member there is another Italian who has not still subscribed").
Today we have 490,000 subscribers compared to an estimate of 550,000 Italians in all. The London Consulate calls it "the phenomenon of emergence ".
It remains true that Italians would make false papers to come to the United Kingdom (indeed: they do, and occasionally catch them) which is super-attractive for a young person oppressed by the Italian tax system, but the current post-Brexit laws make this impossible ( given: less than 8,000 work visas granted to Italians from January 2021 to today ) because, the UK no longer knows how to tell us, they have had enough of Europeans and they have succeeded very well in slamming the door in our faces.
One of the passage.
So.
While here those who visibly don't know things and pronounce themselves in an apodictic way, without citing sources, tend to be on the fence about it, those who instead bear sensible testimonies, compatibly with the little time that my fragmented existence leaves me, normally receive a hotel on these pages. The words of "uno de passa", in addition to being supported by official studies and statistics, have the accent of truth, even if they do not change the meaning of what we said two posts ago: possibly they accentuate it (in fact). Strange as it may seem, people prefer to live in a normal country, and we chose not to be (in good, or at least colorful, company) some years ago.
The testimonies of the Awanaganians remain on the disaster that Brexit would have caused to the English financial industry (these too, obviously, based on "friendly" newspaper headlines). Consulting firms' analysis is less catastrophic . The loss of passporting has forced some companies to dislocate part of their services to offices located in the member countries, but in the aggregate the disaster after 2016 cannot be seen. The trend in the share of added value of financial services on the total is as follows:
(the source is this , I used the data at 2019 prices). I couldn't find post-2020 data on the OECD website either, so I don't know what happened in the last two years, but I doubt it's of an order of magnitude similar to what happened before 2016 (the fall from '11% to 8% of financial services out of total value added).
I don't know, reading the last words of "uno de passo" ("Europeans have had enough"), it makes me think that the expats who are howling against Brexit on Twitter are actually ballast whose respective companies have seized the right to break free. It may be that the " treider" with bay in English have always seemed to me, when I met them on Twitter, poor fools…
But that's only because I, notoriously, am a bugly for Zone!
This is a machine translation of a post (in Italian) written by Alberto Bagnai and published on Goofynomics at the URL https://goofynomics.blogspot.com/2023/01/brexit-il-fenomeno-dellemersione.html on Sun, 29 Jan 2023 19:58:00 +0000. Some rights reserved under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 license.