(… if I needed to find hobbies, you would be a fun and instructive pastime. In reality I have a lot of things to do, but when one of you says something stimulating I don't give up on listening to them …)
AR left a new comment on your post " Unemployment, fertility, pensions ":
There's still one piece missing. Africa has never stopped having very high TFRs.
Kazakhstan, on the other hand, fell with the end of the Soviet Union and then rose again; something that other former RSS failed to do.
Maybe it is only due to the emigration of ethnic groups with low TFR (German and Russian). But it deserves further study because it is a success.
Published by AR on Goofynomics on Nov 2, 2023, 3:15 pm
Not for anything else, but because a certain mis-spelling (africa…) referred to low education or low attention to detail, I wanted to go and verify this story of Kazakhs who reproduce like leverets… The data is here :
and in fact they confirm that in Kazakhstan the total fertility rate, after having reached a minimum at the end of the 1990s, has recovered. The fact is that the same thing happened, to varying degrees, to the Kyrgyz, the Uzbeks, the Turkmens (or Turkmens, if you prefer), in short, a little bit to everyone, and that with all this recovery the Kazakhs have reached the level of Tajiks, who have always remained firmly at the top of the rankings. The situation of Ukrainians and Azeris, for example, is very different.
But I return to one point: what lessons can we draw from countries so different from ours and which have gone through a process of disintegration of the supranational entity that oppressed them? Perhaps total fertility is related to the average height above sea level ? Or perhaps, more plausibly, that similar processes of disintegration are costly in the short term in economic and social terms, but then restore a minimum of dignity and perspective to individual national communities.
A lesson that we had already learned and highlighted by following many other paths.
Well, as you can see, I listened to you, dear AR. But honestly you still don't convince me.
This is a machine translation of a post (in Italian) written by Alberto Bagnai and published on Goofynomics at the URL https://goofynomics.blogspot.com/2023/11/la-fertilita-del-kazako.html on Thu, 02 Nov 2023 16:53:00 +0000. Some rights reserved under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 license.