Pe’ sick there is china (again on Albania)
brina82 left a new comment on your post " Frenkel goes to Albania ":
Dear Prof., I hope you don't ban me for this comment.
I understand foreign debt and the Frenkel cycle, but it would be like saying that Albania would be able to make "rock bottom" prices thanks to an economy addicted to foreign credit, as if there were unfair, unfair competition, like the Marco conventionally undervalued thanks to the Euro system (allow me to make a comparison, even if obviously linked to completely different dynamics).
However, doing the math, the per capita income is related to 1/4-1/5 (or something like that) of the Italian one, so in my opinion the competitive price that can be seen with tourism is more linked to this (one has made a "poor" economy), which to a discourse linked to the importation of capital from abroad (and also in consideration of the fact that, unlike neighboring Greece, nobody has ever spun off the Albanian beaches, probably because never "pushed", never sponsored).
At this point, however, we should see a bubble, i.e. prices should skyrocket, if Frenkel has arrived in Albania …
Thank you.
PS at this point, will I be banned?
Published by brina82 on Goofynomics on 21 Aug 2023, 06:59 am
GNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Sorry: everything is fine, very much, but the victimistic planter on Bagnai who also bans honestly no!
Apart from the fact that one does not say "ban" but ban, from which it follows etymologically that the people who are eventually sent to draft are banned, not banned, that is, they are bandits, not banned, I would like to insist on one point: in this blog the comments are moderated, and moderation is not censorship. According to some, censorship is what Vannacci should undergo: a prejudicial restriction of freedom of expression. Censorship tends to defend (or try to defend) the interests of the system. Moderation is a very different thing: not publishing nonsense or irrelevant things after having read them, and it is in the interest of those who have expressed themselves in a differently intelligent or pertinent way. If you understand it, that's fine, if not, that's fine because at least I'm in charge here, and therefore you can do little about it. Victimhood is truly degrading for those who express it, if only because it shows that they have not understood where they are. Downstream of this radical incomprehension there are others, inevitably.
What does our new dear friend not understand?
Simple!
That in a country whose relative poverty line is 14% of ours ( here ):
(but this can also be useful), with the negligible savings rates we saw in the previous post , if foreign capital hadn't arrived there simply wouldn't have been the facilities to welcome foreign tourists! The country would not have generated enough savings to invest in the construction of these structures! Even those who do not know, as I know, entrepreneurs who have made this bet can get there.
This has been the main reason that has so far precluded the development of a certain type of tourism: the fact that previous seasons of political uncertainty had not encouraged the influx of capital necessary to create the infrastructure required by "beach & sunbed" tourists (another element could be the prejudice towards the inhabitants of that country, who in a certain phase of their integration into Europe have left us some bad memories).
So yes, it can also be argued that behind the Piddino hype in favor of Albania there is the exploitation of poor labour, this is obvious! Do we really have to tell each other? There is nothing that the Piddini argue that is not intimately connected to a project of exploitation, from the single currency (of which we have sufficiently explored all the implications here), to the green revolution (which is nothing more than a twist in the sense neocolonial of our relationship with Africa), to holidays at -248%, which can also be read as taking advantage of the poor work of one of the few countries worse off than us ( here ):
Only that without foreign capital there would be no structures in which to complete this typically European noble project!
I would also like to point out that in itself there is nothing wrong with the fact that on the one hand consumers orient themselves on the basis of price signals (for the same quality…), nor that less developed countries are able to offer workforce at a lower cost. In particular, tourism is an export, which however, as we have seen, is not enough and we can assume that it will not be enough to correct Albania's monstrous excess of imports (and therefore to repay the capital invested in that country for various reasons) .
The dimension of exploitation, in my opinion, is more evident in the financial dynamics than in the fact that a country with a path and a socio-economic situation radically different from ours offers lower prices because it has lower costs. From the latter dynamic, in theory, an equalization of incomes in the two countries could arise, ideally with the catching-up of the initially least advantaged country. We'll see if it ends like this. On the one hand, I would like to say that if the quality of the services offered is vaguely comparable to the Italian one, it is because many Italians have gone to invest there. On the other hand, given that tourism will hardly rebalance such an unsustainably deficient balance of payments, that the moment of exploitation will arrive with the redde rationem , when the capital will have to be returned as I explained in the previous post: austerity, collapse of the wage quota, etc.
In short: now we are in the phase where it is good. What goes wrong (for the Albanians, I mean) will come later, and in this, as in many other things, the bridge between today and tomorrow is finance.
As for your curious presumption that this is not a Frenkel cycle because there is no bubble, did you at least go and check first whether the bubble is there or not?
Albanianssee it like this :
but you will surely be more informed than them!
After all, this is why Bagnai "bans" you! Because you can't deny it from the top of your superior science and experience of the world!
What a mean person this Bagnai is: "bannandoti" qualifies you for what he is, and therefore, symmetrically, not "bannandoti" qualifies you for who you are: a dear friend.
That's enough?
If not, there is still some: but this will already have been useful for many to explore some aspects of the debate on the -248% (provided it still interests you: but as I explained to you, sooner or later it will come back into the news: no one survives a deficit like this sustained balance of payments … and a bubble in the housing market!).
(… be clear: I have nothing against anyone, let alone against the Albanians. They are objective dynamics, and today it is easy to read up on …)
(… victimhood? No, thanks …)
This is a machine translation of a post (in Italian) written by Alberto Bagnai and published on Goofynomics at the URL https://goofynomics.blogspot.com/2023/08/pe-malati-ce-la-china-ancora-sullalbania.html on Mon, 21 Aug 2023 17:39:00 +0000. Some rights reserved under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 license.