All of Russia’s bluffs in negotiations with Ukraine. Marrone’s analysis (Iai)
Russia says it wants to reduce its military operations in northern Ukraine: it is not a negotiation concession, explains Alessandro Marrone (Iai), but a consequence of the failures on the ground. Here are which ones
Among the Ukrainian cities bombed by Russia between last night and today there are also those in which – according to what was announced on Tuesday, after the negotiations in Turkey – should have reduced activities: namely Kiev and Chernihiv, in the north of the country.
"Russia is trying to pass what is a military datum through negotiation: in the short term it is unable to march towards Kiev". This was underlined to Sky TG24 by Alessandro Marrone, head of the Defense Program of the Institute for International Affairs (IAI), referring to the news that emerged on the war in Ukraine : as mentioned, Russia – author of the aggression – said yesterday that it intended to reduce drastically its military operations in Kiev and Chernihiv.
As also explained by other military analysts, the Russian army was failing to advance towards the two cities; Moreover, Moscow seems to want to reshape its military campaign, focusing on taking the East (the Donbass), given the failure to achieve the initial objectives: the rapid conquest of Kiev and the overthrow of President Volodymyr Zelensky.
BROWN: THE WAR IN UKRAINE IS "IN A NEW PHASE"
Despite the Russian statements, "the war continues, there is no ceasefire and there is no truce", remarked Marrone. “We are in a new phase of the conflict. Russia is progressively recognizing that its main objectives ", the capture of the capital and the overthrow of Zelensky," are no longer achievable. He is alternating the offensive on the ground with diplomatic negotiations ”.
“The reduction of activities” in Kiev and Chernihiv, explained the analyst, “is not a diplomatic concession, but reflects the military defeat on the ground. A local defeat. It will be necessary to see how the Russian forces will reorganize. There is no ceasefire, the bombings continue ”.
RUSSIA UNDERESTIMATED UKRAINE
At Omnibus , on La7, Marrone recalled again this morning that Russia has deployed 190 thousand units in Ukraine; “He had planned a shorter and easier campaign underestimating the Ukrainian resistance and in the face of the stalemate he drew on everything he had at his disposal: reservists, conscripts, mercenaries, for example from the Wagner company, Chechen militias; she threw everything she had on the plate, and failed to achieve the initial goal. It has spared no strength in terms of human resources ”.
"The Ukrainian anti-aircraft was not destroyed either due to the limits of Russian aviation […], and due to the level reached over the years by the Ukrainian side also through cooperation with Western countries, and because […] at the beginning Russia did not he wanted to raze Kiev or Ukraine. He wanted to conquer it without doing too much damage in order to then have sufficient consent to establish a puppet government ”.
NATO DETERRENCE "WORKS"
Marrone recognizes that the new phase of the war that started yesterday is uncertain, and making predictions is difficult. However, he believes that there is no progress towards "an escalation on the Russian side outside the Ukrainian borders because NATO's deterrence works". The use of nuclear weapons seems unlikely, he says. "It is possible to intensify and accelerate Russian attacks on targets considered more achievable", such as the Donbass.
“It is probable that diplomatic negotiations will also experience fluctuating phases”, added Marrone, “alternating reality on the ground. It is a different reality from the previous one ”, when Russia used diplomatic channels to“ cover up ”its true intentions on the country: the annexation of a part of the territory and the establishment of a friendly government on the remaining part.
WILL ZELENSKY AND PUTIN MEET?
Regarding the possibility of a summit between Zelensky and Putin, as requested several times by the first, Marrone recognizes the difficulty of predicting if and when it will happen. "A lot is up to Putin's personal decision", he explains, if he were to come to judge the meeting with the Ukrainian president useful in getting the message across at home that Russia has achieved its goals in Ukraine, "even if it is not the case. 'goal will not be achieved ”, referring to the conquest of the capital.
BECAUSE BIDEN WAS WRONG
A few days ago, during his visit to Poland, US President Joe Biden said, referring to Putin: "for God's sake, this man cannot remain in power", a phrase that seemed to allude to the will regime change in Moscow. Administration officials and the president himself later denied this interpretation.
"The US position on leadership in Moscow is very important and very delicate, and it has not been managed in the best way", Marrone told Sky TG24 , because these words of delegitimization can lead "the Russian leadership to try everything in Ukraine. ".
The analyst explained that "the negotiation is mainly between Ukraine and Russia". However, the United States and the European Union can play an important role: namely "maintaining the balance between sanctions on Russia to encourage it to negotiate, providing defensive weapons to Ukraine to help it resist, avoiding other signals that could discourage Russia to negotiate ”, just like Biden's words.
HOW THE EUROPEAN DEFENSE IS CHANGING
After the first Russian invasion of Ukraine – in 2014, for the annexation of Crimea – the governments of the NATO member countries pledged to reach the target of 2 per cent of defense spending, compared to GDP. By 2021, ten countries reached that threshold, according to an alliance chart .
"Today the increase is much greater," said Marrone, citing the cases of Poland (which wants to bring defense spending from 2 to 3 percent of GDP) and Germany (100 billion euros this year; Italy's defense budget is approximately 26 billion).
"The war in Ukraine is a historical change that changes the perception of the threat by the European states, the United States, NATO, the European Union". The strengthening of military capabilities, he explains, "belongs to the individual member states, in a NATO framework in which the priority is to ensure collective defense, not to intervene directly in Ukraine".
With regard to the European Union (many of its members are also part of the Atlantic alliance), "the big challenge is not only to invest more in defense, but to do it more among Europeans, cooperating and integrating". In this way, concludes Marrone, the strengthening of NATO's "European pillar" will allow for a "more balanced transatlantic relationship" with the United States.
FINLAND AND SWEDEN IN BORN?
Russia's aggression against Ukraine has changed the orientations of public opinion in Finland and Sweden, which have become more favorable to joining NATO. "I think it is very difficult for Finland and Sweden to join NATO," said Marrone, recalling that the "situation of neutrality has ensured peace for eighty years and is not directly jeopardized by Putin's ambitions to rebuild Greater Russia. The very fact of being a member of the European Union is in itself a deterrent, because a Russian attack would be a direct attack on the European Union ”.
Sweden and Finland, Alessandro Marrone continues, “have been very close to NATO for years with military procedures, information exchange, joint exercises. NATO is already able to help the two countries effectively ”. Furthermore – he concludes – the very fact that Russia has not managed to conquer Ukraine “discourages” any military action in Finland, where compulsory conscription is in force.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/guerra-russia-ucraina-marrone-iai/ on Wed, 30 Mar 2022 11:12:36 +0000.