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All the failures of the anti Covid government strategy. Ricolfi’s analysis

All the failures of the anti Covid government strategy. Ricolfi's analysis

"The second wave is the result, predictable and foreseen, of the omissions of the state and regions in recent months on the crucial sides". The analysis of prof. Luca Ricolfi, sociologist and teacher of data analysis

The second wave is the result, predictable and foreseen, of the omissions of recent months on the crucial aspects: increase in tampons and drive-ins, creation of a task force for tracing contacts, control of gatherings, hiring of health personnel, strengthening intensive care, increase in the fleet of means of transport, organization of health surveillance in schools, reduction in the number of pupils per class, staggering of school entry times. Instead of doing these things, they told us that the whole world admired the Italian model of fighting the epidemic.

Not having done so, the second wave had a smooth road. There are those who warned of the danger in May, some in June, some in July, but starting from mid-August it was impossible not to understand, because all the indicators (I repeat: all the indicators) said that the curve was no longer growing linearly, but exponentially.

It is this not wanting to see that has led us today to face a very high and dangerous wave. And this is the reason why we are called to new sacrifices, even if for now they prefer not to tell us which ones, how big, and above all how long. But the answer is simple: the sacrifices will be all the greater and longer as the government continues to stall, postponing measures it already knows it will have to take.

Are the Italians ready for a new season of sacrifices? I think not, partly for bad reasons, partly for very good reasons.

The bad reasons boil down to one: our society, despite pockets of poverty and malaise, now looks more like an amusement park than a factory. Ninety-five parents out of 100 would never have dared to tell their children that it was better, for a summer, to give up mass entertainment and switch to less dangerous or more useful occupations, such as seeing few friends, playing outdoor sports, making up time of study lost during the lockdown.

But even for us, who are no longer teenagers, it would have been very painful not to be free to spend the holidays abroad, or to have to scrupulously observe the rules of prudence, starting with the use of the mask and respecting the distance. In short, most Italians have thought and think that they have already made enough waivers in the lockdown of March-April, and that it is not really the case to make others. These are the bad reasons, because a society that has lost the ability to make sacrifices for the common good is simply a society in decline, even if it prefers to describe itself in more lenient records.

But there are also good reasons in resisting making new sacrifices. Excellent reasons. Which I would reduce to one: Prime Minister Conte did not apologize. He introduced himself as usual on TV, to tell us that the situation was serious, and that we had to make sacrifices again. Oh no, dear premier, we would have liked to hear another speech, a speech of truth and humility. A speech that sounded more or less like this.

"Dear Italians, it's true, in recent months, despite the full powers that we have taken by proclaiming a state of emergency, we have not done, a, b, c, d, e, f, … (long list here), nor have we really expected that you did what we had prescribed, like no nightlife, no gatherings on public transport, strict respect for distancing.

A little 'we turned a blind eye to compensate you for the two months of lockdown, a little' we have avoided because we are quarrelsome, disorganized, and we tend to postpone difficult decisions. But now that the epidemic has raised its head the lesson we have understood.

We understood that Professor Crisanti was right when, in July, he told us that 300 positives a day are not few. And he was even more right when, in August, more than two months ago, he handed us a plan to increase the swabs and build a truly active surveillance system for the epidemic. And those who warned us that the schools were not ready to reopen were also right, despite a barrage of wheelchair benches on the way.

It's still. «This is why, when we ask you for the first sacrifices, which will soon be followed by others, we also promise you that we will no longer make those mistakes. Here is our time schedule, with the things we will do, the allocations, the times within which we guarantee that things will be done (a long and detailed list of things not done, but which will be done in the next three months follows).

Because we know well, now it is clear to us, that if we do not do all these things, the epidemic, after your new sacrifices, will seem in retreat for a few weeks or months, but then it will relentlessly reappear with a third wave ».

We, these words have not yet heard. We haven't seen this program yet. And we would like it. Immediately. If we do not see it, we will make the sacrifices again, as always, but we will not be able to remove the doubt that, once again, they will be useless.

Luca Ricolfi

(Extract of a comment published on ilmessaggero.it ; here the full article )


This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/tutti-i-fallimenti-della-strategia-del-governo-anti-covid-lanalisi-di-ricolfi/ on Mon, 02 Nov 2020 05:56:16 +0000.