All the problems of the autonomous car. The crushes of Apple, Volkswagen, Amazon and Audi
Argo AI, Titan, Artemis… there are more and more projects for self-driving cars postponed or shelved, after having gobbled up huge amounts of money
When we began to invest seriously in technologies and startups dedicated to the development of self-driving cars, it seemed that, by the beginning of the 20s of this century, we would have revolutionized private mobility. Something not too dissimilar to Blade Runner , with instead of flying vehicles driverless machines, able to proceed by themselves. The beginnings, moreover, represented by the first cars capable of parking themselves, identifying obstacles and pedestrians, were promising. But then something changed and the autonomous car crashed.
WHY DO SELF-DRIVEN CARS SWEND
In reality, much more than something has changed. In fact, there are numerous reasons why the autonomous car has quickly become a well capable of swallowing up billions for the biggest brands in the automotive or hi-tech sector. First of all, the technology: we have probably been too optimistic. Despite the progress made in the AI field, we are far behind.
Then there's a whole ethical issue: are we ready to accept that an autonomous car runs over a pedestrian? Hit a cyclist? This brings with it the wait-and-see attitude of legislators from all over the world and their inertia certainly does not encourage investment, given that electric cars may not have roads on which to travel.
But, above all, legislators all over the world are imposing a tight race on electric cars on car manufacturers and this has absorbed the bulk of investments: it is necessary to redesign factories, supply chains, secure new suppliers and study technologies capable of guaranteeing more autonomy and greater recycling of critical elements, which are finished and whose cost is destined to skyrocket.
The chip crisis itself is forcing brands to redesign the 'brains' of their cars to require as few semiconductors as possible. Toyota, for example, has announced that for the moment its new models will say goodbye to smart keys in favor of traditional ones. In all of this, in short, we understand why the autonomous car remained in the workshop.
TESLA'S TROUBLE
And those who still believe in self-driving, like Tesla (only last October, CEO Elon Musk declared that he would soon release an updated version of the "Full Self-Driving" software that will allow customers to go "to work, home of friends, at the grocery store without touching the steering wheel”) is now even having to contend with US Justice Department investigations that may even have criminal profiles, at least according to Reuters .
The principle that AI learns itself on the road is not paying off, after all. A report published by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration — the federal agency that belongs to the Department of Transportation and is responsible for understanding how to increase road safety — claims that Tesla's autopilot was active in 273 accidents that occurred in 12 months, 70% of the total recorded by all vehicles that are experimenting with similar technologies. And given that in many, too many cases the dead have escaped us, even the most permissive legislators are now starting to set limits.
A TITAN WITH FEET OF CLAY?
Even Apple has remained entangled in the problems of self-driving cars. According to Bloomberg, Titan would have been postponed to 2026 after a structural reboot due to the fact that, halfway through the work, the engineers paid by Cupertino realized that the project was not feasible.
The car without a steering wheel and pedals more than futuristic now appears only futuristic. In short, it won't. Not immediately, at least, and Apple's Titan expected in '26 will be something very different and much more scaled down in terms of technology, they say from Bloomberg, which has heard some sources close to the dossier. Full autonomy can only be had on the motorway.
IT GOT WORSE AT ARGO AI
Things certainly went worse for the half-European half-US startup Argo AI, founded in 2016 by Bryan Salesky and Peter Randers in which Ford had invested 1 billion dollars to take over the majority while the Germans of Volkswagen over 2.6 billion, of which 1 billion between purchase of the shares and capital contributions while the remainder in the form of a transfer of the Autonomous Intelligent Driving GmbH of Munich.
A joint venture that had raised the value of the startup to over 7 billion. “In coordination with our shareholders, the decision has been made that Argo AI will not continue its mission as a company. Many of the employees will have the opportunity to continue working on automated driving technology with Ford or Volkswagen, while for others the employment relationship will unfortunately end", is the meager press release to which the news of the closure of the innovative reality was entrusted . According to rumors, the more than 2,000 employees of Argos, in addition to receiving a package of bonuses and prizes once the liquidation has been completed, will be able to choose whether to join the workforce of the two companies or obtain severance payments including health insurance coverage.
THE REVERSE OF AMAZON
It is news of the last few hours, reported by Bloomberg , that the startup could have been saved by an injection of liquidity from Amazon. Argo AI was so confident of the successful outcome of the operation that the company founded by Jeff Bezos would have made an investment well before the final signing to hire about 150 people to be allocated to the autonomous driving equipment of the Rivian EV vans that Amazon will use to deliver the goods, reports said.
The deal was discussed at the highest level by former VW chief executive Herbert Diess and Amazon boss Jeff Bezos earlier this year. But Amazon balked at the high cost of Argo's technology. Rivian itself is costing Amazon a fortune . Ford instead closed the third quarter with a net loss of 827 million dollars and, according to what its CEO Jim Farley said, priorities would have changed: “We are optimistic about a future for Adas L4s, but profitable vehicles and fully autonomous on a large scale are a long way off and we won't necessarily have to create this technology ourselves”, so much so that the Blue Oval seems to want to focus on closer technological goals: “Customer development and enthusiasm for the benefits of Adas L2+ and L3 justify the company's short-term aspirations and commitment in these two areas”.
WOULD YOU BET ON CHINA?
Volkswagen, on the other hand, irritated by the Western stalemate, decided to bet on the Eastern software houses by putting a few billions into the startup Horizon Robotics , as reported by the German economic publications Handelsblatt and Manager Magazin . The House of Wolfsburg, moreover, makes about 40% of sales and half of the profits in China. The decision to carry out research and development for vehicle technology in the country is not surprising, given that the Asian district is considered a more advanced market in terms of digital innovation than Europe and the United States also due to the huge investments government initiatives aimed at factories that do R&D and universities that incubate startups. The company led by Oliver Blume also manages numerous joint ventures in the Asian country, holding a 75% stake in its venture with JAC, 50% with SAIC and 40% with FAW.
AUDI LOSES ARTEMIS?
The date to mark on the calendar to understand how VW will move is December 15th when the successor of Herbert Diess should present to the supervisory board his revolution in the field of software for electric cars which, as it was said, have so far given not a few problems for the Group due to the delays of Cariad, the IT division, which have already led to the indefinite postponement of the Trinity project. According to some rumors, Blume should decree the farewell, for Audi, of the Artemis autonomous driving project, to leave it to the commercial vehicles division.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/smartcity/tutti-i-problemi-dellauto-autonoma-le-sbandate-di-apple-volkswagen-amazon-e-audi/ on Thu, 08 Dec 2022 07:11:04 +0000.