Because gas will ignite Italian bills for a long time to come
According to S&P, energy prices in Europe will continue to rise until 2023, especially in Italy, where there is a strong dependence on foreign gas. Here are data and forecasts
The rating agency S&P Global Ratings published an analysis a few days ago in which it states that energy prices in Europe will continue to rise also in 2022 and 2023, while supply will decrease.
GREATER VOLATILITY RELATED TO WEATHER
"Europe's most ambitious environmental goals", write the authors of the study, "will accelerate the closure of thermal and nuclear generation plants, which renewables will not be able to completely replace in the next three years, leading to greater price volatility linked to to the weather ”(on which sources such as wind and solar depend for their output).
THE SCENARIO FOR ITALY
S&P Global Ratings argues that energy prices in Italy will remain higher than those of other markets in Western Europe until 2025 due to a "shortage of structural supply". In the period 2022-2025, prices will exceed 60 euros per megawatt hour, higher than 52 € / MWh in 2019. The report cites the lack of domestic energy supplies, and therefore the dependence on imports from abroad, in particular on gas. natural.
The strengthening of the interconnection capacity with the markets of other countries, which in 2025 should reach 12.7 gigawatts, will contribute to lowering energy prices in our country.
THE WORDS OF CINGOLANI
Ecological Transition Minister Roberto Cingolani said that in the next quarter (October-December) electricity bills could increase by 40 percent due to high natural gas prices and CO2 emission quotas. The increase does not only concern Italy, but also other European countries such as Spain .
In an interview with Corriere della Sera , Cingolani specified that the increases depend "80% on increases in gas prices and only 20% on CO2": that is, the emission quotas exchanged between companies in the European market , come to almost 60 euros per ton.
“That is, we are seeing”, added the minister, “what it means to be dependent on certain energy sources such as fossils”.
GAS FOR THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
If for the Draghi government gas is a resource from which it is necessary to detach, for the United Arab Emirates it will on the contrary be the fuel of economic growth for the next fifty years. This was stated by Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and CEO of the state-owned oil company ADNOC during the Gastech 2021 conference.
RENEWABLE SELF-SUFFICIENCY?
Minister Cingolani instead thinks that "if we commit ourselves to the objectives we have set ourselves as Europe and as Italy, namely to reach 70% of electricity produced from renewable sources by 2030, we will be able to disconnect from supplies from other countries". And therefore reduce exposure to foreign natural gas prices.
THE ROLE OF RUSSIA BEHIND THE INCREASE IN PRICES
Prices that, according to the head of the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom, will continue to rise due to the continent's low storage levels, as autumn and winter draw closer. Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas to Italy (followed by Algeria at a distance) and to Europe in general, but Gazprom's exports to the Old Continent are below its capacity.
The company has booked only one third of the transit capacity made available for the month of October by the Yamal-Europe pipeline (31.4 million cubic meters out of 89), and no extra transit capacity via Ukraine (it is not the first time). The choices are contributing to the rise in prices.
It is likely that, through this flow restriction, Russia is trying to convince Europe of the importance of Nord Stream 2 for its energy security. This is the gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea that directly connects Russia to Germany, without passing through Ukraine. It is a controversial project and opposed – among others – by the United States, which consider it a geopolitical weapon that will allow Moscow to strengthen its grip on Europe and to increasingly weaken Ukraine, depriving it of gas transit taxes and making it irrelevant in the eyes of Brussels.
The Nord Stream 2 is complete; the approval of the German authorities is lacking for the start of the operations.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/gas-prezzo-energia-italia-europa/ on Tue, 21 Sep 2021 13:05:05 +0000.