As long as China does not dominate Asia it will not be able to compete with the US. The advantage of the Americans at sea is overwhelming, the control of sea routes is the prerogative of the States. The in-depth analysis by Dario Fabbri, Limes analyst.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has led to think of a disengagement , a decline of American power in favor of that of China. Nothing could be more false, in the opinion of Dario Fabbri, a geopolitical analyst from Limes and an expert in American politics, among other things.
China: economic but not geopolitical power
"China is the most massively present power in Africa, it tries to insert itself in Latin America, the US backyard, and is trying to insert itself in Europe through the acquisition of ports and one day perhaps through the construction of infrastructures". However, according to Fabbri's analysis, China is an economic penetration and the world is not governed by the economy but by power. And the scepter of power is still firmly in American hands . "China today is unable to leave home, it cannot even recover Taiwan, the goal by 2049 is to recover the island of Formosa – said Fabbri during" Mappa Mundi "-. Everything it exports is exported through American-controlled bottlenecks and isthmuses, in front of the Chinese coast there are American vehicles that prevent China from going into the open Pacific Ocean, from crossing the islands' first line of defense. If the US were to have Chinese ships in New York or at the port of New Orleans, we will talk about a different story but it is not like that ”.
The inhomogeneity of the Uighurs
Furthermore, China is an inhomogeneous region within it, unlike the US which can enjoy a population and an administration made up of culturally homogeneous individuals. “China has the Xinjiang region inhabited by the Uyghur population, who are not and do not feel Chinese,” continues Fabbri.
Fabbri: "China does not dominate its home region"
The analyst's picture of China returns a power taken by the attempt to free itself from the suffocation that the Americans are hatching through the massive presence of American ships in the Pacific Ocean. “ China does not dominate its home region and there is no superpower that does not dominate its region. Until China dominates Asia it will not be able to compete with the US – adds the analyst -. Also in this reading the economy is humiliated because all the countries of the continent depend economically on China but ask for the protection of the USA ”.
Dominion of the sea: the great US advantage
The advantage of the Americans at sea is overwhelming, the control of the sea routes is the prerogative of the United States. “They are unattainable in terms of the navy and it is not a question of means – explains Fabbri -. The Chinese navy can also outperform the American one but it does not have the ability to stay at sea because it is an anthropological capability ”.
The safety of the American island
The other aspect that allows the US to continue to wear the jersey of hegemonic power is its geographical location. “ Living in North America is the greatest advantage a geopolitical power can have because North America is a continent that the United States pacified in a very violent way more than a century ago – says Limes' analyst -. They dominate Canada, which is not even a sovereign country. Mexico will become a major strategic problem for the US but it is not yet. This has to do with the fact that the USA lives far from all the hot places on earth , being always far away allows us to be chosen by the powers that live in other regions ”. The advantage of being far from hot places lies in the fact that “when a subject can choose between two hegemonic powers he always chooses the one furthest away from himself in all phases of history. Because the distant one will disappear one day, the one that lives on the same continent will never disappear and if you end up under it, or inside, re-emerging is very complex ”.
The risks of the Russian-Chinese ticket
It is not too imaginative to think of an alliance between Russia and China with an anti-American function. “Russia and China can undoubtedly reach a tactical understanding. But there are many steps missing before getting there. Two land powers are unlikely to ally themselves , because they have too many conflicting interests, Russia fears China on its border. A limited and temporary tactical agreement that would not be decisive against the USA – assures Fabbri -. The war between the US and China will, if any, only be maritime. In the maritime sector Russia is of little importance, in the Indo-Pacific there is no Russia in the navy ”.
USA without rival even in space
If there is no rival on the maritime level, there is no rival in terms of communication via the internet either because all the largest IT companies are American. Space too is and remains a territory of absolute US domination. “There are two reasons that bring the powers into space, on the one hand a propaganda reason. It's like saying: “ We are beyond the earth, bigger than the earth ” – concludes Fabbri -. Space, by itself, is of no use to power. We go into space to control the seas, control of the seas passes through satellites and missile shields that can be organized in space. "
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/perche-la-guerra-fra-usa-e-cina-sara-marittima-lanalisi-di-fabbri-limes/ on Sun, 24 Oct 2021 06:33:45 +0000.