Bper, Bpm and more. What will happen to the banks on costs, revenues and dividends
Facts, numbers, analyzes and scenarios on Bper, Banco Bpm and more.
Waiting to know the accounts of the second quarter of 2021 and to know if the shareholders will be able (finally) to have the dividends of 2020, the banks have yet to deal with Covid-19 which does not stop frightening the stock exchanges of the Old Continent.
THE PERFORMANCE OF SECURITIES AT PIAZZA AFFARI
In fact, yesterday there was a sharp decline for banking stocks, which suffered from the poor performance of the main European markets due to fears of a new wave of pandemic. In Milan, the Ftse Mib closed trading with 3.33%, the third consecutive decline, but drops of more than 2% occurred in London, Paris and Frankfurt.
At the end of the day, the black jersey of the banking sector went to Bper, a stock in greatest decline on the Milan stock exchange with -5.07% after being stopped in the volatility auction at -5.4%. Also bad was Intesa Sanpaolo (-4.23%), Bnp Paribas (-4.04%), Unicredit (-3.58%) and Banco Bpm (-3.19%).
FORECASTS ON THE ACCOUNTS FOR THE SECOND QUARTER
Meanwhile, there are those who are starting to make forecasts on the accounts for the second quarter of the year which will be presented shortly: appointment with Unicredit and Mediobanca on 29 July, with Bper and Intesa Sanpaolo on 4 August, with Banco Bpm, Credito Emiliano and Montepaschi on August 5th.
According to Mediobanca Securities "the trends in the second quarter could resemble those of the first: net interest income should fall, high commissions should offset, while costs and the cost of risk could move upwards according to seasonality" warns the bank business according to which there should not be “major movements in the 2021 consensus, with the exception of Bper Banca, where the weakness of the net interest income may not find a compensation. In the recent sell-off – continue the analysts of Piazzetta Cuccia – Italian banks underperformed by 4% in one month, in light of the sensitivity to rates and the outperformance since the beginning of the year. Bper Banca underperformed twice as much, partly reflecting the expectations of a weak quarter ”.
Going into detail, Mediobanca Securities expects “a solid contribution from commissions, supported overall by commissions in asset management and deposits. Instead, commissions on loans will likely see a contraction due to the weakening of quarterly volumes: -2.5% quarter on quarter ”. Furthermore, “Unicredit and Banco Bpm will also suffer from the difficult basis of comparison with the first quarter of 2021, pumped by exceptional up-front commissions, in our opinion”. However, the evolution of the moratoriums will remain the key to understanding how things will go: "We will follow the evolution of the moratoriums in the second quarter, which at the sector level are down 50% quarter on quarter, about 3% of loans, since any significant difference could give an idea of future NPL flows ".
On the balance sheet, Cet1 “on the whole we expect it to remain stable in the second quarter, with the exception of that of Banco Bpm and Unicredit as the regulatory headwinds could bring Cet1 down by 15/30 bp quarter on quarter”.
THE NEXT (LIKELY) DIVIDEND PAYMENT
Mediobanca also has its say on the detachment of the coupons which should arrive shortly . According to analysts of the investment bank, only Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo are "willing and able to give back to shareholders more than the ordinary payout". We recall that in July 2020 the European Central Bank had recommended to EU credit institutions not to detach coupons and not to make purchases of treasury shares until January 2021 due to the economic crisis due to the spread of Covid-19. In December, another suspension or in any case a limitation within certain thresholds arrived until 30 September 2021 also with regard to the buy-back plans.
Last March Andrea Enria, chairman of the Eurotower Supervisory Board and former EBA number one, had made it clear that – in the absence of particularly negative developments in the situation – dividend payments could have been resumed and finally a month ago he announced that on 23 July Frankfurt will decide whether or not to remove the dividend ban after 30 September 2021. On that occasion Mediobanca Securities, quite sure of the green light to release payments like Equita Sim, commented: “We see about 20% capitalization of excess market capitalization and this is one of the pillars behind our constructive stance on EU banks, which is coupled with inflationary pressures, stronger than expected GDP, inexpensive valuations relative to other sectors and M&A, while any negative aspects, such as NPLs, are postponed to 2022 ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/bper-bpm-e-non-solo-che-cosa-succedera-alle-banche-su-costi-ricavi-e-dividendi/ on Tue, 20 Jul 2021 04:55:30 +0000.